考虑预测不确定性的优化框架,让时间分配建议更可靠
Quality Diversity for Reliable Data Driven Time-Use Optimization

- 用组合数据分析时间使用与健康关系,建模多指标影响
- 融合预测不确定性,生成高收益且低风险的时间配置方案
- 适合关注行为健康决策可靠性的研究者和应用开发者
每日24小时时间分配与身体健康、心理健康及认知功能密切相关。尽管预测模型可估算时间使用结构与身体质量指数、生活满意度、认知能力等健康结果的关系,但多数优化方法仅追求期望收益最大化,忽略数据驱动预测中的固有不确定性。忽视不确定性可能导致不切实际的时间建议。为此,我们提出一种结合不确定性量化的能力多样性(QD)框架,用于更可靠的时序使用推荐。基于n > 1000名儿童队列数据,采用组合数据分析方法构建目标函数,捕捉日常活动构成与多重健康指标间的关联。我们开发了一种将预测不确定性嵌入QD过程的新方法,生成在期望健康收益与模型置信度之间取得平衡的推荐方案。通过变量基础和目标基础的行为表征探索解空间,揭示了多种高质量时间使用结构及其在不确定性下的健康关系。通过直接嵌入不确定性,该框架将推荐引导至不确定性更低的区域,同时保持高质量结构,从而实现行为健康决策的更高可靠性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The daily allocation of the finite 24-hour time budget is strongly associated with physical, mental, and cognitive health. While predictive models can estimate the relationship between time-use compositions and health outcomes such as body mass index, life satisfaction, and cognition, most optimization approaches focus only on maximizing expected benefit and do not consider the uncertainty inherent in data-driven prediction. Ignoring uncertainty in health-related decisions can lead to unrealistic time-use recommendations. To address this gap, we introduce an uncertainty quantification Quality Diversity (QD) framework for a more reliable time-use recommendation. Objective functions are derived using compositional data analysis using a large child cohort dataset n > 1000, to capture the relationship between daily activity compositions and multiple health indicators. We develop a new approach that incorporates predictive uncertainty into QD processes and produces more reliable recommendations that balance the expected health benefits with the confidence of the model. We explore the solution space through variable-based and objective-based behavioral representations, revealing diverse high-quality time-use composition and explicit relationships between health outcomes under uncertainty. By embedding uncertainty directly into optimization, our framework shifts the time-use recommendations toward regions of lower uncertainty while preserving high-quality structures for more reliable decision-making in behavioral health.
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