arXiv:2608.05256cs.AI2026-08

军事部署优化新方法,能对抗对手精准打击,提升作战效率。

Posture and Sustainment Optimization Under Adversarial Uncertainty

  • 用多场景加权策略分配军力,兼顾地理覆盖和抗打击能力。
  • 相比传统做法,部署效率最高提升19.8%,极端情况下可避免57.3%的战备损失。
  • 适合军事规划、战略推演及对抗性系统设计的研究者使用。

先发部署姿态(pre-commitment posture)是联合作战规划中一个关键且尚未解决的问题。当前做法依赖贪心启发式方法,仅追求价值最大化而忽略地理覆盖,易被针对高价值目标的对手攻击。本文提出一种面向态势与持续性分配(PSA)问题的对抗鲁棒部署优化引擎,将其建模为资产、战区位置与时间步上的有限时域马尔可夫决策过程。引入复合期望值(CEV)优化器,通过最大化威胁场景分布下的加权预期部署效率来分配资源;并提出RobustCEV扩展,迭代应对根据部署观察更新打击分布的贝叶斯对手。在包含20个资产和5个战区位置的印太基地环境下进行三组实验表明:(1)贪心基线因地理覆盖不足,导致永久性25.1%部署效率损失,并在与价值相关的对抗威胁下出现57.3%的场景加权战备崩溃;(2)当威胁分布具有地理信号时,CEV优化器相较贪心方法最高恢复19.8%效率,仅需5至20个场景即可捕获大部分增益;(3)面对具备欺骗性威胁先验的自适应对手,RobustCEV扩展相较非智能优化器效率提升高达158%。所有结果经配对t检验与邦弗朗尼校正及双层方差分解验证,确认性能差异为部署策略的结构性特征而非采样误差。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Pre-commitment posture, the assignment of military assets to theater locations before conflict scenarios resolve, is a critical and formally unsolved problem in joint operational planning. Current practice relies on greedy heuristics that maximize value and ignore geographic coverage and are structurally vulnerable to adversaries that target high-strategic value locations. This paper presents a scenario-weighted adversarially robust posture optimization engine for the Posture and sustainability allocation (PSA) problem, modeled as a finite-horizon Markov Decision Process over assets, theater locations, and time steps. We introduce the Composite Expected Value (CEV) optimizer, which places assets by maximizing scenario-weighted expected posture efficiency over a distribution of threat scenarios, and the RobustCEV extension, which iterates against a Bayesian adversary that updates its targeting distribution in response to observed placement. Across three experiments in an Indo-Pacific basing environment with 20 assets and 5 theater locations, we demonstrate that: (1) the greedy baseline incurs a permanent 25.1% posture efficiency penalty due to geographic under-coverage and a 57.3% scenario-weighted readiness collapse under value-correlated adversarial threat; (2) the CEV optimizer recovers up to 19.8% efficiency over greedy when the threat distribution carries a geographic signal, with a curated set of 5 to 20 scenarios sufficient to capture the majority of this gain; and (3) the RobustCEV extension recovers up to 158% efficiency relative to a naive optimizer when an adaptive adversary employs a deceptive threat prior. All findings are validated using paired t-tests with Bonferroni correction and two-level variance decomposition, confirming that the performance gaps reported are structural properties of placement strategies rather than sampling artifacts.

军事规划对抗优化部署策略鲁棒性

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