用不确定性减少量评估设计选项价值,揭示何时尝试新方案最值得。
Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) Model: A Computational Account of What Makes Design Options Worth Trying

- 基于贝叶斯框架,以预期不确定性降低衡量设计尝试的价值。
- 通用性适中时价值最高,结果区分度越高越值得尝试。
- 适合做设计探索、原型筛选和反馈机制优化的研究者参考。
本文提出贝叶斯预期不确定性减少(B-EUR)模型,将尝试候选设计行动的价值定义为对行动-结果关系认知不确定性的预期降低。该模型回应了不确定性驱动行为(UDA)模型中关于不确定性感知变化如何影响行动选择的开放问题。研究考察了两个环境特性:泛化性(知识从一次试验推广到相邻候选的程度)与结果可区分性(结果差异能否清晰辨别)。通过模拟和人类实验,在图形状猜测任务中测试模型,该任务在有限试验预算下隔离学习行动-结果关系的过程。模拟显示,认知价值随泛化性呈倒U型关系,随结果可区分性上升;人类实验中,主观价值与愉悦感也随泛化性呈倒U型,而选择行为同时反映两种属性。B-EUR模型为不确定性驱动设计活动中的候选行动评估提供了计算解释,对构建原型集、重构设计问题、组织反馈以支持信息性探索具有启示意义。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper proposes the Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) model, which formalizes the value of trying a candidate design action as its expected reduction of epistemic uncertainty about action--outcome relations. The model addresses one part of the Uncertainty Driven Action (UDA) model's open question concerning how changes in uncertainty perception determine action selection. We examine two environmental properties: generalizability, or how far knowledge from one trial extends to neighboring candidates, and outcome discriminability, or how clearly differences among outcomes can be distinguished. We tested the model through simulations and human experiments using a graph-shape guessing task that isolates learning about action--outcome relations under a limited trial budget. Epistemic value followed an inverted-U-shaped relationship with generalizability and increased with outcome discriminability in the simulations. In the human experiments, the subjective value of trying and enjoyment followed inverted-U-shaped relationships with generalizability, while choice behavior reflected both properties. The B-EUR model provides a computational account of candidate-action evaluation within uncertainty-driven design activity and offers implications for constructing prototype sets, framing design problems, and organizing feedback to support informative exploration.
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