用混合模型预测放牧牛群生长,提升稀疏数据下的精准度
Hybrid Machine Learning Framework for Herd-Level Cattle Growth Pattern and Weight Gain Forecasting in Grazing-Based Production Systems
- 融合动物、环境数据的分层预测框架
- 最佳模型误差仅15.46公斤,预测精度达R² 0.889
- 适合牧场管理、饲草分配等实际决策场景
商业放牧系统中牲畜观测数据不规则,给生长预测带来挑战。本研究基于2022至2024年澳大利亚东南部自动传感数据,构建了用于牛群层级体重预测的混合机器学习框架。整合每周活重观测、人口统计变量及滞后环境因子形成结构化预测数据集。通过动物级预测的时间聚合生成牛群级预测轨迹。评估了四种混合架构:残差、堆叠、级联和集成辅助型。以ARIMA、LSTM和GRU为基线进行对比。独立测试显示多个预测周期下预测一致性良好。级联GB→RF→NN架构表现最优,测试R²为0.889,均方根误差(RMSE)为21.319公斤,平均绝对误差(MAE)为15.462公斤。在观测稀疏条件下,混合架构比循环序列模型更具鲁棒性。预测误差随预测周期延长而逐步上升。特征重要性分析表明,动物年龄、降雨量和温度是影响牛群生长预测的主要因素。该框架可支持异构传感环境下饲料分配、放牧管理与牲畜营销决策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Commercial grazing systems yield irregular livestock observations, which challenge cattle growth forecasting. This study developed a hybrid machine learning framework for herd level cattle weight forecasting using automated sensing observations collected between 2022 and 2024 in southeastern Australia. Weekly live weight observations, demographic variables, and lagged environmental predictors were integrated into structured forecasting datasets. Herd level forecasting trajectories were generated through temporal aggregation of animal level predictions. Four hybrid architecture families were evaluated, including residual, stacked, cascade, and ensemble assisted frameworks. ARIMA, LSTM, and GRU models were used as comparative baselines. Independent testing demonstrated strong predictive agreement across multiple forecasting horizons. The cascade GB to RF to NN architecture achieved the best performance, with a test R^2 of 0.889, RMSE of 21.319 kg, and MAE of 15.462 kg. Hybrid architectures maintained greater robustness than recurrent sequential models under sparse observation conditions. Forecasting error increased progressively across extended prediction horizons. Feature importance analysis identified animal age, rainfall, and temperature as dominant predictors influencing herd level growth forecasting. The proposed framework may support feed allocation, grazing management, and livestock marketing decisions under heterogeneous sensing environments.
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