arXiv:2608.06288cs.LGstat.ML2026-08

用注意力模型估算患者治疗受益概率,更准更鲁棒。

Surv-IPTB: An Attention-Based Model for Estimating Individual Probability of Treatment Benefit with Survival Data

论文配图:Surv-IPTB: An Attention-Based Model for Estimating Individual Probability of Treatment Benefit with Survival Data
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将治疗受益概率建模为二分类问题,通过配对比较学习
  • 在高删失率下仍优于传统方法,非线性场景提升显著
  • 适合个性化医疗决策,尤其处理复杂生存数据

本文提出一种基于注意力机制的新型框架Surv-IPTB,用于在生存分析中估计个体治疗受益概率(IPTB)。该模型直接量化特定患者在接受治疗后相较于对照组获得更长生存时间的概率。我们将IPTB估计重新构建为二分类问题,利用治疗组与对照组间的成对患者比较进行建模。框架通过区间概率表示妥善处理右删失观测,将不确定的治疗效应描述为区间值概率。注意力机制结合可学习的查询-键变换,实现灵活的数据驱动式成对比较聚合,并同时学习删失病例的软类别概率。在具有复杂非线性结构(如螺旋、钟形、圆形特征空间)的合成数据集上,我们验证了该方法在不同删失率和治疗效应强度下均保持稳健性能。模型始终优于配备随机生存森林、Cox比例风险模型及Beran估计器的元学习基线(T-learner和S-learner),尤其在传统方法显著退化的非线性场景中表现突出。结果表明,该注意力框架是生存环境下个性化治疗效益评估的一种可扩展且统计上严谨的解决方案。代码已公开。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This work presents a novel attention-based framework for estimating the Individual Probability of Treatment Benefit (IPTB) in survival analysis contexts. The proposed model, called Surv-IPTB, directly quantifies the probability that a specific patient will experience extended survival time under treatment versus control. We reformulate IPTB estimation as a binary classification problem, leveraging pairwise patient comparisons across treatment and control cohorts. The framework incorporates a principled handling of right-censored observations through imprecise probability representations, where uncertain treatment effects are characterized by interval-valued probabilities. An attention mechanism with learnable query-key transformations enables flexible, data-driven aggregation of pairwise comparisons, while simultaneously learning soft class probabilities for censored cases. Through extensive experiments on synthetic datasets with complex nonlinear structures, including spiral, bell-shaped, and circular feature spaces, we demonstrate that our approach maintains robust performance across varying censoring rates and treatment effect strengths. The model consistently outperforms meta-learner baselines (T-learner and S-learner) equipped with random survival forests, Cox proportional hazards, and Beran estimators, particularly in challenging nonlinear scenarios where conventional methods exhibit significant degradation. The results establish the proposed attention-based framework as a scalable and statistically principled solution for personalized treatment benefit assessment in survival settings. The code implementing the model is publicly available.

生存分析个性化医疗注意力机制删失数据

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。