arXiv:2608.06362cs.GTcs.AI2026-08被引 1

用可验证的即时停止机制,让博弈评估成本降低74倍。

AV-AIVAT: 74x Cheaper Agent Evaluation with Certified Anytime-Valid Stopping in Imperfect-Information Games

  • 结合条件均值修正与持续监控置信序列,实现随时可停的高效评估。
  • 在德州扑克中,相比原始结果,评估所需对局数减少74倍(中位数)。
  • 适合需要高可信度、低成本的AI博弈能力评测场景。

判断两个智能体强弱需进行足够多对局以区分技能与运气,但对局成本高昂且数量未知。固定预算评估要么过早停止,要么过度消耗资源;而简单使用置信区间进行可选停止会破坏统计有效性。本文提出AV-AIVAT,将方差缩减方法AIVAT与连续监控的置信序列(CS)结合,在95%置信水平、±1大盲注精度下,使原始结果所需对局数比AIVAT修正后多出74倍(中位数)。采用经验伯努利置信序列(EB-CS)实现有限样本精确校验,其停止时间受赌注上限与修正收益界共同约束。在实际德州扑克(HUNL)测试中,中位停止时间比为1.37倍。该方法确保评估可在证据充分时立即终止,并提供可审计的完整证明链。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Deciding which of two agents is stronger means playing games until skill outweighs luck, and every game costs money, model inference, or expert time. Since the number of games needed is unknown, fixed-budget evaluations either keep paying after the result is settled or stop before the agents can be told apart, while naive optional stopping with an ordinary confidence interval invalidates the stated level. We make such an evaluation stop as soon as its evidence suffices, with the guarantee intact. The Action-Informed Value Assessment Tool (AIVAT) reduces variance in imperfect-information games through conditional mean-zero corrections, by a median $54\times$ across 15 LLM agent configurations spanning 71,439 paired Heads-Up No-Limit Hold'em (HUNL) hands, but does not say when to stop. We combine AIVAT with continuously monitored Confidence Sequences (CSs) into anytime-valid AIVAT (AV-AIVAT), whose online value model learns only from past games so that no game scores its own correction. At the nominal 95\% level and a target precision of $\pm1$ Big Blind, raw outcomes need a median $74\times$ as many hands as AIVAT-corrected outcomes to stop under the Asymptotic CS (AsympCS). Exact finite-sample certification uses the Empirical-Bernstein CS (EB-CS), which needs an independently justified bound on corrected payoffs. We establish such a bound structurally for Leduc hold'em and characterize a width floor set by the CS's bet cap and that bound, which governs how much of a variance gain becomes earlier stopping; the descriptive HUNL EB-CS runs show a median $1.37\times$ stopping-time ratio. AV-AIVAT turns variance reduction into efficient, auditable early stopping while separating asymptotic screening from exact certification, so an evaluation can stop the moment its evidence suffices and hand a third party everything needed to recheck the verdict at that very stopping time.

博弈评估置信序列方差缩减大模型评测

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