arXiv:2608.06549cs.CLcs.AI2026-08

构建国际经贸谈判纵向数据集,测试大模型对多轮政治博弈的理解能力

TradeVerse: A Longitudinal Benchmark of Political Negotiation in International Trade

论文配图:TradeVerse: A Longitudinal Benchmark of Political Negotiation in International Trade
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于WTO真实会议记录重建1170次谈判,涵盖5个组别和89类商品
  • 模型需预测商品编码、推断回应国名、模拟最后一轮发言,准确率均低于随机
  • 首个聚焦长期政治谈判的评测基准,适合研究多轮推理与外交认知的学者

大型语言模型正被广泛应用于制度性与政治性文本任务,但现有基准仅评估单文档或单一任务。在现实政治中,谈判是长期连续的过程,各方在多轮互动中不断调整立场,每一轮都依赖此前所有互动。我们构建了TradeVerse,一个源自世界贸易组织(WTO)具体贸易关切的真实数据集,其中成员国就各类商品展开多年多轮争端与交涉。本研究重构了1170次会议纪要,覆盖5个工作组和89个产品组别,设计三项任务:第一,分析长时序会议记录,预测当前会议讨论商品的海关编码(HS章节);第二,根据匿名化会议内容推断回应国家;第三,让模型扮演回应方,生成最后一轮发言。所有标签均直接从官方文件提取,无需人工标注。实验表明,当前大模型在这些任务上表现不佳。据我们所知,TradeVerse是首个系统评估大模型理解长期政治贸易谈判潜力的基准。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

LLMs are increasingly being applied to tasks involving institutional and political texts, but existing benchmarks evaluate them on isolated documents or single tasks. In realpolitik, negotiations are longitudinal data, where participating parties can align or argue over multiple iterations and each turn is an outcome of the previous turns, hence, understanding one turn requires tracking everything before it. We introduce TradeVerse, a benchmark built from the World Trade Organisation (WTO) specific trade concerns, where member states challenge one another and exchange arguments over multiple rounds, sometimes for years. We, in TradeVerse, reconstruct minutes of $1170$ meetings, spanning across 5 groups and $89$ product groups and define three tasks: first, the system has to analyze the longitudinal meeting records and predict the harmonized system codes (HS chapters) of the products under discussion in the particular meeting, second, we examine whether the system, upon analyzing the anonymized content of the meeting, can guess the name of the responding country and third, we ask the system to play the role of the responding country and provide the statement for the very last round. All labels are recovered directly from the proceedings, requiring no manual annotation. Our experiments highlight the challenges these tasks pose for current LLMs. To the best of our knowledge, TradeVerseis the first benchmark to investigate potential of LLMs in understanding longitudinal political trade negotiations.

政治谈判多轮推理WTO长时序建模

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