构建可查询的因果世界系统,让智能体做出不被干扰的可靠决策。
Toward a Causal Data Management Ecosystem for Decision Making and Agentic AI
- 提出共享持久的因果世界系统(CWS),统一管理多源异构数据
- 通过因果推理区分决策驱动因素与表面相关性,避免误判
- 适合需要自主决策的智能体系统和高风险场景下的可信分析
现代AI已演变为复杂生态:传统机器学习模型、深度与多模态模型、大语言模型及智能体,各自基于不同数据源训练并产生输出,这些输出又相互作为输入。运行该生态本质上是数据集成问题——其依赖的知识分散在数十个异构、独立治理的数据源中,需持续整合与维护。然而仅靠集成仍不足:系统预测受多重交互因素影响,事件、决策与变量常混杂于结果之中;若将相关信号当作行动依据,会导致混淆性决策。当智能体自主行动时,这一问题尤为突出:为确保可信可靠,智能体必须预判行为后果,而非仅从共现中推断。因果推理正是填补此空白的关键,能区分结果的真正驱动因素与伴随现象,支持预测性与反事实分析。因此,我们主张在集成生态中引入显式因果层,并提出构建一个共享、持久、可查询的因果世界系统(Causal World System, CWS)。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Modern AI is no longer a single model but an ecosystem: classical ML predictors, deep and multimodal models, large language models, and agents, each trained and tuned over different data sources and each producing outputs at scale that become inputs to the others. Operating such an ecosystem is fundamentally a data integration problem - the knowledge it depends on is fragmented across dozens of heterogeneous, independently governed sources that must be reconciled and continually maintained. Yet integration alone is not enough. The predictions these systems make are shaped by many interacting factors, and the events, decisions, and variables that drive an outcome are routinely entangled with the ones that merely accompany it; treated as a basis for action, such correlational signals invite confounded decisions. This becomes acute once agents act autonomously: to be trustworthy and reliable, an agent must anticipate the consequences of its actions, not merely extrapolate from what has co-occurred before. Causal reasoning is what closes this gap, distinguishing the drivers of an outcome from its correlates, and enabling prescriptive and counterfactual analysis over the ecosystem's data. We therefore argue that the integrated ecosystem needs an explicit causal layer, and we propose to build it as a shared, persistent, queryable Causal World System (CWS).
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