arXiv:2608.07398math.OCcs.HC2026-08

用逆优化还原工厂计划员的真实目标,提升模型可信度。

Uncovering expert objectives in production planning via inverse optimization: An industrial case study

论文配图:Uncovering expert objectives in production planning via inverse optimization: An industrial case study
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 从历史生产计划反推隐含目标权重,构建可解释模型。
  • 揭示缺货规避与周期一致是决策主导因素,准确率提升显著。
  • 适合制造业优化系统设计者与数据驱动决策研究者。

制造业生产计划常依赖优化模型,但合理设定目标函数极具挑战。规划者需权衡多重目标、应对不确定性,并考虑难以量化的业务偏好,导致现有模型难以匹配专家行为,降低信任度。本文提出一种数据驱动的逆优化框架,通过混合整数线性规划建模,将未知目标函数表示为假设成本项的加权和,采用基于次优损失的逆优化方法,从历史生产计划中学习目标权重。该方法应用于道尔公司(Dow)的真实工业案例,推断出避免库存短缺和保持稳定周期长度是决策核心。时间与产品依赖的扩展进一步提升了预测精度,并揭示了优先级的动态变化。专家访谈验证了结果的实际有效性。研究表明,逆优化能将隐性经验转化为可解释模型,助力复杂工业系统构建更精准、可信的决策支持工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Production planning in the manufacturing industry often relies on the use of optimization models, but defining an appropriate objective function can be a challenge. In practice, planners must balance competing goals, manage uncertainty, and account for qualitative business preferences that are difficult to quantify. As a result, many optimization models fail to match expert behavior, limiting trust and adoption. In this work, we propose a data-driven inverse optimization framework to infer the objective function implicitly captured in expert planners' decisions. We formulate the production planning problem as a mixed-integer linear program, where the unknown objective function is represented as a weighted sum of hypothesized cost terms. A suboptimality-loss-based inverse optimization method is then applied to learn the objective weights from historical production plans. The proposed approach is applied to a real industrial case provided by Dow, where the inferred weights reveal that avoiding inventory shortages and maintaining consistent cycle lengths dominate the planners' decision-making. Time- and product-dependent extensions further improve predictive accuracy and uncover evolving priorities. Expert interviews confirm the practical validity of these insights. Overall, this study shows that inverse optimization can transform tacit human expertise into interpretable models, enabling more accurate and trusted decision-support tools for complex industrial systems.

逆优化生产计划数据驱动工业应用

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