arXiv:2608.07420cs.LG2026-08

直接预测终点,突破传统世界模型长时序预测瓶颈

Beyond Myopic World Models: Long-Horizon End-to-End Training for Direct Future Prediction

论文配图:Beyond Myopic World Models: Long-Horizon End-to-End Training for Direct Future Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用单次前向传播压缩动作序列并预测终点,避免递归推演
  • 在连续控制和像素基准上,长时序预测误差显著降低
  • 训练目标决定性能上限,适合需要长期规划的场景

世界模型应支持长时间跨度的想象,但多数仍通过短步预测目标训练,并通过递归推演部署。这导致训练目标与实际需求不匹配:局部损失优化瞬时过渡精度,而长时预测依赖误差和梯度在整个轨迹中的传播。因此,不同下游影响的过渡在训练中被同等对待,小误差在递归中被放大。我们主张通过端到端终点预测目标直接优化长时序准确性。为此提出直接预测世界模型(DPWM),一种非递归架构,将任意长度的动作序列压缩为单一嵌入,单次前向传播预测终点观察。该设计在预测和梯度传播中均避免递归推演,使长时序端到端训练在传统自回归训练不稳定时依然可行。实验显示,DPWM在连续控制与像素基准上显著优于递归基线,且随预测时域增加,优势更明显。进一步表明,递归基线若用相同长时终点目标重训,性能也大幅提升,支持核心观点:训练目标而非模型结构是长时预测准确性的关键驱动力。结果提示,世界模型应在最终使用的时间尺度上进行训练与评估,从局部过渡建模转向长时预测精度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

World models are expected to support imagination over extended temporal horizons, yet most are still trained through local few-step prediction objectives and deployed by recursively rolling out their own predictions. This creates a fundamental mismatch: few-step losses optimize local transition fidelity, while long-horizon prediction depends on how errors and gradients propagate through the entire trajectory. As a result, transitions with different downstream influence on the endpoint are treated uniformly during training, and small local errors are amplified through recursive inference. We argue that long-horizon accuracy is better achieved by optimizing directly, through an end-to-end endpoint prediction objective. To instantiate this paradigm, we introduce the Direct Prediction World Model (DPWM), a non-recursive architecture that compresses an action sequence of arbitrary length into a single embedding and predicts the endpoint observation in a single forward pass. This design avoids recurrent rollout in both prediction and gradient propagation, making long-horizon end-to-end training practical at horizons where unrolled autoregressive training becomes unstable. Empirically, DPWM substantially improves long-horizon endpoint prediction over recursive world-model baselines on continuous-control and pixel-based benchmarks, with larger gains as the prediction horizon increases. We further show that recurrent baselines benefit similarly when retrained with the same long-horizon endpoint objective, supporting our central claim that the training objective, rather than the particular backbone choice, is the main driver of long-horizon prediction accuracy. Our results suggest that world models can benefit from being trained and evaluated at the temporal scales where they are ultimately used, shifting the focus from local transition modeling toward long-horizon predictive accuracy.

世界模型长时预测端到端训练非递归

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