用稀疏观测数据预测血栓生长,实现个性化血栓建模。
Predicting blood clot growth from sparse post-onset measurements with latent neural differential equations

- 基于隐变量神经微分方程,从少量观测中推断未知参数。
- 在四类生化因子与早期血栓尺寸下,准确预测后续生长轨迹。
- 适合临床血栓研究与个体化治疗,尤其适用于数据稀疏场景。
血液凝固的计算模型有助于理解血栓形成,但其临床应用受限于许多输入难以测量,且患者数据通常稀疏。本文提出一种基于隐变量神经微分方程的计算框架,可从稀疏测量中推断未知模型参数并预测血栓进展。基于多物理场血栓模型生成的数据,以纤维蛋白原及因子IX、VIII、V为已知输入,结合早期血栓尺寸观测,推断组织因子参数并预测后续生长。对比七种概率方法:随机神经常微分方程(SNODE)、随机神经泛函微分方程(SNFDE)、隐变量神经过程基线、单调概率深度集成、经验轨迹检索、PCA-岭高斯后验、戈贝茨曲线检索。结果表明,SNODE在参数推断和未来轨迹预测中表现最佳;SNFDE性能相近,且显著优于其他非微分模型。随着观测增多,预测精度提升;而预测时长远则增加不确定性,降低准确性。该框架有效融合参数推断与血栓生长预测,为个性化血栓建模提供可行基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Computational models of blood clotting improve understanding of thrombus formation, but their clinical application remains limited because many model inputs are difficult to measure and patient-specific data are often sparse. We present a computational framework based on latent neural differential equations that infers unknown model parameters from sparse measurements and forecasts thrombosis progression. We demonstrate the framework using data generated from a multiphysics blood-clotting model in which clot growth is governed by the coagulation cascade and diffusion. Four known biochemical inputs (fibrinogen and factors IX, VIII, and V), together with sparse early clot-size observations, are used to infer the tissue-factor parameter and predict subsequent clot growth. We compare seven probabilistic methods: stochastic neural ordinary differential equations (SNODE), stochastic neural functional differential equations (SNFDE), a latent neural-process baseline, a monotone probabilistic deep ensemble, empirical trajectory retrieval, PCA-ridge Gaussian posterior, and Gompertz-curve retrieval. SNODE achieved the best performance in inferring the unknown input and forecasting future clot-growth trajectories. SNFDE performed similarly and consistently outperformed the other non-differential models. Prediction accuracy improved as more observations became available, whereas longer forecasting horizons increased uncertainty and decreased accuracy. Latent neural differential equations thus effectively combine parameter inference and clot-growth forecasting from sparse measurements, providing a promising foundation for personalized thrombosis modeling.
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