评估九种本地供电技术，发现自建电源成本远超电网，难实现碳中和目标。
Beyond the Grid: Cost, Carbon, and Capital Requirements of On-Site Power Technologies for AI Data Centers
- 以真实算力负载和动态电价评估本地发电，打破传统成本比较误区。
- 燃气联合循环每度电成本47美元，但全站综合成本达114美元，高于电网92美元。
- 氢能与储能受限于成本和碳排放，投资回报率低，不适合当前数据中心建设。
互联排队而非电价决定数据中心选址。传统平准化成本分析假设固定负载与电价，却忽略需求对价格的影响，给出的站端成本无法实际购买。本文在完整场地基础上，基于实测GPU训练负载、可变燃料价格、生产路径碳排放及45V/48E政策激励，评估九种本地供电技术。结果表明：燃气联合循环发电成本为47美元/兆瓦时，但全站综合能源成本达114美元/兆瓦时，高于电网的92美元；四小时储能仅能覆盖年耗电约18%，且边际充电更脏；由电网电力制氢在成本与碳排上均失败。投资逆向分析显示，转化硬件学习无益，全球电解槽部署需超3000亿美元才能使质子交换膜氢能达电网成本的2.2倍，碳减排约85%（6.8倍），仍无法实现电网平价。自建供电本质是接入与深度问题，当前投资方向错误。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Interconnection queues, not electricity prices, now govern where data centers can be built, and the standard levelized-cost comparison answers a question no developer faces: it assumes a load profile, freezes the grid price while modeling the demand that moves it, and quotes busbar costs a facility cannot buy. This paper evaluates nine on-site supply technologies against a delivered grid whose price is endogenous to projected data-center demand, on a complete-site basis that retains standby charges, with measured GPU training load, delivered fuel prices, production-pathway carbon, and statutory 45V and 48E incentive mechanics. Nothing beats the wire: gas combined cycle produces at 47 USD/MWh but costs about 114 USD per megawatt-hour of complete site energy against a 92 USD grid; four-hour storage is physically capped near 18 percent of annual energy and, charged at the margin, dirtier than the grid; hydrogen from grid-priced power fails on cost and carbon together. An investment inversion converts these findings into capital terms: conversion-hardware learning buys nothing, because free hardware still exceeds the grid for every low-carbon arm, while global electrolyser deployment on sited sub-20 USD/MWh power brings PEM hydrogen power to about 2.2 times the grid at 300 billion USD and 1.9 times at 1 trillion USD (2.7 and 2.3 for the hydrogen engine), with a carbon reduction of roughly 85 percent (6.8-fold) against grid-power production. Grid parity is not purchasable at any budget. On-site supply is an access and depth product; most current investment targets the wrong term.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品；中文卡片由大模型生成，请以原文为准。