用扩散模型做工具变量分位数回归,处理高维复杂数据更准。
Conditional Diffusion for Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression

- 先用扩散模型学条件分布,再用蒙特卡洛和核平滑估计分位数
- 理论证明误差可控,重尾数据下性能仍优,维度越高越明显
- 适合高维工具变量场景,尤其在传统方法失效时有优势
本文提出一种基于深度非参数工具变量分位数回归(IVQR)的两阶段估计方法,结合条件扩散建模与核平滑条件矩公式。第一阶段利用保持方差的条件扩散模型估计结果变量与内生协变量在工具变量下的联合条件分布;第二阶段通过蒙特卡洛采样和指示函数的核平滑代理,近似条件矩算子,并基于深度神经网络进行经验风险最小化以估计结构分位数函数。建立了该估计器的超额风险界,并在无界支持条件下推导了条件扩散模型的端到端总变差保证,明确考虑了得分估计、早停及离散化误差。理论在数据分布具有多项式尾包络的假设下成立,且随尾指数增大,误差率连续收敛至非参数回归的极小极大最优率,因此本重尾理论包含经典轻尾情形作为极限情况。模拟研究与真实数据分析表明,所提方法优于现有非参数IVQR方法,且随着协变量与工具变量维度增加,性能提升愈发显著。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This work proposes deep nonparametric Instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR), a two-stage estimator that combines conditional diffusion modeling with a kernel-smoothed conditional moment formulation. In the first stage, we estimate the joint conditional distribution of the outcome and endogenous covariates given the instrument using a variance-preserving conditional diffusion model. In the second stage, we approximate the conditional moment operator through Monte Carlo sampling and a kernel-smoothed surrogate for the indicator function, and then estimate the structural quantile function by empirical risk minimization over deep neural networks. We establish an excess-risk bound for the proposed estimator and derive end-to-end total variation guarantees for the conditional diffusion model under unbounded support, explicitly accounting for score estimation, early stopping, and discretization errors. Our theory is developed under a polynomial-tail envelope on the data distribution and degenerates continuously to the exponential setting: as the tail index grows, the obtained excess-risk rate converges to the minimax-optimal rate of nonparametric regression, thus our heavy-tailed theory covers the classical light-tailed nonparametric guarantees as a limiting case. Simulation studies and a real-data application demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing nonparametric IVQR approaches, with gains that become increasingly pronounced as the dimensionality of the covariates and instruments increases.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。