arXiv:2608.08354cs.CV2026-08

用卫星和大气数据联合预测台风轨迹与结构,速度快且精度更高。

Tropical Cyclone Forecasting via Latent Rectified Flow using Satellite Imagery and Atmospheric Fields

论文配图:Tropical Cyclone Forecasting via Latent Rectified Flow using Satellite Imagery and Atmospheric Fields
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用潜空间修正流模型一次性生成图像和大气场
  • 9小时预测峰值信噪比达16.35 dB,速度提升30倍
  • 奖励微调让台风路径误差降低15%,适合气象预报场景

气候变化使热带气旋破坏力增强,高效预测其结构与路径变得迫切。深度生成模型可替代计算昂贵的数值天气预报(NWP),但现有系统仅能生成卫星图像或大气场之一,需大量采样步骤,且路径依赖无物理关联的回归头。本文提出一种单步模型,联合预测GRIDSAT-B1红外图像与四类ERA5大气场(风速U/V、气温、地表气压),预测时长达9小时。五通道变分自编码器将每帧5×256×256压缩为4×64×64潜变量,条件化修正流UNet结合因子化时间注意力模块,从三帧历史数据、最佳路径坐标与时间戳预测下一帧。模型经可微路径误差(基于风场引导流)进行奖励微调(DRaFT)。在2022年保留风暴测试中,模型在所有预报时长下均优于复现的级联扩散基线(+9小时时提升0.84 dB),PSNR达16.35 dB,SSIM达0.759,采样速度提升约30倍(56毫秒 vs. 1673毫秒)。+9小时路径误差为62.4公里,比基线低15%;奖励微调实验表明,在不同采样预算下路径误差再降8%-11%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Tropical cyclones are growing more destructive in a changing climate, and efficient forecasting of their structure and track has become a necessity. Deep generative models promise an alternative to computationally expensive numerical weather prediction (NWP), yet current systems produce either satellite imagery or atmospheric fields, never both; they need many sampling steps, putting them out of reach of modest hardware; and their storm tracks come from regression heads with no physical link to the generated atmosphere. This work presents a single-pass model that jointly forecasts GRIDSAT-B1 infrared imagery and four ERA5 atmospheric fields (U-wind, V-wind, air temperature, and surface pressure) out to nine hours. A five-channel variational autoencoder compresses each 5 x 256 x 256 frame to a 4 x 64 x 64 latent, and a conditional rectified-flow UNet with a factorized temporal-attention module predicts the next three frames from three past frames, their best-track coordinates, and timestamps. The model is then reward-fine-tuned (DRaFT) against a differentiable track error derived from the predicted winds through a steering-flow calculation. On held-out 2022 storms the model reaches 16.35 dB PSNR and 0.759 SSIM, ahead of a reproduced cascaded-diffusion baseline at every lead time (+0.84 dB at +9 h) while sampling ~30x faster (56 ms vs. 1673 ms). Track error at +9 h is 62.4 km, 15% below the baseline, and a reward fine-tuning study demonstrates a further 8-11% track-error reduction across sampler budgets.

台风预测生成模型气候建模潜空间流动

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