arXiv:2608.08398cs.AIastro-ph.IM2026-08

为星系形态分类提供不确定性评估框架,提升结果可信度。

Estimating Uncertainty in Galaxy Morphology Classification

论文配图:Estimating Uncertainty in Galaxy Morphology Classification
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于冻结主干网络的表示,后验估计分类不确定性
  • 可区分模型、数据、标准及物理本质四类不确定性
  • 无需采样计算,适合大规模星系图像分析

天文学家通过星系形态分类研究宇宙演化。尽管深度基础模型在星系形态分类(GMC)中日益普及,但对分类结果不确定性的评估仍鲜有研究。由于观测仪器和环境限制,天文数据本身具有固有噪声;同时星系持续演化带来形态上的内在模糊性。然而,现有基础模型通常作为确定性点估计器,无法量化不确定性。为此,本文提出UE GMC,一种针对星系形态分类的后验不确定性评估框架。该框架将不确定性分为模型参数、天文数据、参考标准或内在物理模糊性四类,从而实现更优的分类判断。框架可直接从冻结基础模型提取的特征表示中预测不确定性,无需昂贵的采样计算,支持细粒度评估。实验表明,UE GMC在不确定性量化性能上达到与先前方法相当的水平。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Astronomers classify galaxy morphology to investigate cosmic evolution. While deep foundation models are increasingly utilized in Galaxy Morphology Classification (GMC), little work has been done on evaluating the uncertainty of GMC results. Uncertainty evaluation is important because astronomical data are inherently noisy due to instrumental and environmental limitations. Also, the continuous evolution of galaxies creates intrinsic morphological ambiguity. However, current foundation models operate as deterministic point estimators, failing to quantify the uncertainty. To overcome this limitation, we propose UEGMC, a post-hoc framework of Uncertainty Estimation for Galaxy Morphology Classification. It categorizes uncertainty in GMC into distinct types by model parameters, astronomical data, reference standards, or intrinsic physical ambiguities, thereby facilitating better classification. Our framework can directly predict uncertainties from representations extracted from the frozen backbones of foundation models, without computationally expensive sampling, therefore enabling fine-grained uncertainty evaluations. Our experimental results demonstrate that UEGMC provides competitive uncertainty quantification performance compared with previous methods.

星系分类不确定性估计基础模型天文学

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