用结构引导修正雷达回波强度,提升降水临近预报精度。
FreCast: Refining Radar Echo Intensity via Phase-Preserving Amplitude Residual Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcasting

- 先生成预测结构,再基于结构修正各点回波强度偏差
- 在三个数据集上均提升预报性能,长时预报更连贯
- 适合需要精确强度预测的气象业务与研究者
降水临近预报旨在从历史雷达回波序列中预测未来回波的时空演变,从而估计近期内降水的发生、发展与移动。近年来,深度学习已成为该任务的重要方法。尽管先进模型能较好捕捉未来降水的整体空间分布,但在单个位置的回波强度预测仍存在显著偏差。为此,本文提出一种更聚焦的误差修正策略:不重建整个回波序列,而是利用初始预测的降水结构作为约束,对第一阶段预测中的强度偏差进行局部修正。我们提出 FreCast,一个两阶段雷达回波预测框架:第一阶段生成未来回波的初步预测;第二阶段以第一阶段的结构为指导,优化各位置的回波强度。在三个数据集上的实验表明,FreCast 在多项预报评估指标上均实现一致提升。定性结果进一步显示,其在长时预报中更好地保持了雨带连续性和强降水结构。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Precipitation nowcasting predicts the spatiotemporal evolution of future radar echoes from historical radar echo sequences, thereby estimating the occurrence, development, and movement of precipitation over the near term. In recent years, deep learning has become an important approach to precipitation nowcasting. Although state-of-the-art models can generally capture the overall spatial distribution of future precipitation, their predictions still exhibit substantial biases in radar echo intensity at individual locations. This observation motivates a more targeted strategy for reducing forecast errors. Instead of regenerating an entire radar echo sequence without spatial constraints, the predicted precipitation structure can be used to guide the refinement of echo intensities at individual locations. This structure-guided refinement directly targets echo intensity biases. Accordingly, we propose FreCast, a two-stage framework for radar echo prediction. The first stage generates an initial forecast of future radar echoes. The second stage uses the spatial structure of the initial forecast as a constraint to further correct intensity biases at individual locations in the first-stage prediction. Experiments on three datasets demonstrate that FreCast achieves consistent improvements across forecast skill metrics. Qualitative results further show that FreCast better preserves rainband continuity and intense precipitation structures at longer lead times.
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