arXiv:2608.08689cs.AI2026-08

提出可解释的结构动力图世界模型,实现多源机制融合与约束可控推演。

A Structural Dynamics Graph World Model: Unified Modeling, Constrained Rollout, and Interpretable Calibration

论文配图:A Structural Dynamics Graph World Model: Unified Modeling, Constrained Rollout, and Interpretable Calibration
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用节点和边分别定义自演化与耦合动态,固定形式机制可插拔
  • 真实数据下约束违反归零,极端洪水期预测误差仅108 cfs(基线892-3007)
  • 支持故障溯源与可审计推演,适合需可信约束的时空分析场景

复杂系统的状态演变由物体规律、关系传播、领域守恒和未建模误差共同驱动。将所有来源强行整合为黑箱会丧失机制可追溯性与约束保全性;而将每种机制强塞进同一方程族,则会丢弃成熟的领域求解器。我们提出结构动力图世界模型(SD-GWM),作为可执行的结构契约:节点声明自演化(S),边声明邻域图耦合演化(N),二者均为固定形式的机制资产(规则、微分方程、求解器),仅校准授权参数。可选的有界残差(R)集中学习能力,全局投影将状态映射至可行性空间,强制约束但不保证精度提升。在八个预注册研究问题上,SD-GWM实现:(i) 异构集成:规则与求解器原生接入;(ii) 语义保真:关闭R时源语义逐比特保留,四条理论性质获显式证明/经验边界验证;(iii) 可审计治理:分步追踪支持反事实故障定位(top-1 = 1.0),无需事后近似。在半合成洪水测试床与美国地质调查局(USGS)流量数据上,分析测试中约束违反降至浮点精度容忍范围,半合成与真实数据案例中降为零。平静期性能匹配基准;但在持续254天的极端洪水变化期间,持久性及所有神经基线崩溃(90分钟RMSE 892–3007 cfs),而SD-GWM保持在108 cfs(8–28倍优势)。有界残差仅在主干偏差条件下降低约50%的RMSE。我们定位SD-GWM并非通用优越预测器,而是可验证、约束安全的时空挖掘基础架构。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The state evolution of a complex system arises jointly from object laws, relational propagation, domain conservation, and unmodeled error. Forcing all sources into one black box makes mechanism attribution and constraint preservation unauditable; forcing every mechanism into one equation family discards mature domain solvers. We propose SD-GWM, a Structural Dynamics Graph World Model as an executable structural contract: nodes declare self-dynamics S, edges declare neighbor graph-coupled dynamics N---both fixed-form mechanism assets (rules, ODEs, solvers) calibrating only authorized parameters. An optional bounded residual R concentrates learnability, while a global projection maps states to feasibility, enforcing constraints without guaranteeing accuracy gains. On eight pre-registered research questions, SD-GWM delivers (i) heterogeneous integration: rules and solvers plug in natively; (ii) semantic fidelity: disabling R preserves source semantics bit-for-bit, with four theory properties under explicit proof/empirical boundaries; (iii) auditable governance: stepwise traces enable counterfactual fault localization (top-1 = 1.0) without post-hoc approximations. On a semi-synthetic flood testbed and USGS streamflow, SD-GWM reduces constraint violations to floating-point tolerance in analytical tests and to zero in semi-synthetic and real-data cases. Persistence matches SD-GWM in calm periods, but during a 254-day extreme-flood shift persistence and all neural baselines collapse (90-min RMSE 892-3007 cfs) while SD-GWM holds at 108 cfs (8-28x gain). The bounded residual cuts RMSE ~50% only under backbone bias. We position SD-GWM not as a universally superior forecaster, but as a verifiable substrate for auditable, constraint-safe spatiotemporal mining.

世界模型可解释性约束建模水文预测

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