arXiv:2608.09433cs.LGcs.AI2026-08

把复杂金融模型简化成易读规则,还能保持高准确率。

How Simple Can It Get? From Interpretable Equations to Readable Rules for Financial Decision Making

  • 从单方程模型逐步简化为可读规则和评分卡
  • 剪枝几乎不损失精度,简化后仍有效分类
  • 适合金融风控、合规审查等需要透明决策的场景

在金融等受监管领域,不可解释的模型无法部署。但许多可解释分类器生成包含数十个特征的公式,仍难以阅读。本文反其道而行之:从一个由输入特征构成的单一可解释方程出发,逐步简化为更易读的形式,包括剪枝后的单项式、方向性条件规则,以及金融界已使用的整数评分卡和计数表。由于该方程本身就是预测模型而非事后解释,可直接量化每步简化带来的损失。在四个金融数据集上,剪枝几乎无损,且保真度下降快于预测性能下降,说明更简单的规则可在不完全复现原模型的情况下仍具有效性。人工评估显示简化显著提升可读性,不同职业背景者偏好不同表示形式。此外,我们推导出剪枝导致变化的理论上限,并能预测仅保留特征方向的规则对原始排序的保持程度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In regulated domains such as finance, a model that cannot be explained cannot be deployed, yet many interpretable classifiers defeat their own purpose by producing formulas with dozens of features that no regulator could read. We take the reverse direction. Starting from an interpretable classifier expressed as a single equation over the input features, we progressively simplify it into more readable forms, including a pruned monomial, a directional if--then rule, and the integer scorecards and tallies that finance already deploys. Because the equation is itself the predictive model rather than a post-hoc explanation we can directly quantify what is lost under each simplification. Across four financial datasets, we find that pruning is nearly free and that fidelity can erode faster than predictive performance, allowing simpler rules to remain effective classifiers without faithfully reproducing the original model. A human assessment shows that simplification improves perceived readability, while preferences for different representations vary by professional background. Beyond measuring these losses empirically, we show that some can be anticipated from the original model: we derive a bound on the change caused by pruning and predict how faithfully a rule retaining only the direction of each feature's effect preserves the original ranking.

金融决策可解释性模型简化规则提取

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