arXiv:2608.09450cs.LG2026-08

用下注策略将在线凸优化与逼近性检验结合,实现随时有效的统计证据。

From Approachability Residuals to Anytime-Valid Evidence: The Online Convex Geometry of Testing by Betting

  • 通过支持函数残差建立下注测试与逼近性理论的显式联系。
  • 在有限时间内,可定量判断目标偏差是否被拒绝,精度依赖于后悔项与财富增长。
  • 适用于主动实验设计,对异质数据源和核MMD等场景具操作性。

基于下注的序列检验与Blackwell逼近性通过支持函数残差建立了显式可计算的映射关系。对于紧凸目标集 $S$ 及向量观测 $r_t$,在线凸优化(OCO)学习者选择可预测的法向量 $w_t$,生成 $q_t = \iglangle w_t, r_t\ig angle - h_S(w_t)$。我们证明了路径无关恒等式:$$ \dist(\bar r_T, S) = \frac{1}{T}\sum_{t=1}^T q_t + \frac{\Reg_T}{T} $$。当 $|q_t| \leq B$ 时,结合单边下注可实现有限时间转换:若OCO后悔与对数财富后悔均不超过 $a_T$ 与 $\ell_T$,则当目标偏差超过 $$ \frac{a_T}{T} + 2B\sqrt{\frac{\log(1/\alpha)+\ell_T}{T}} $$ 时,必在时间 $T$ 前被拒绝;反之非拒绝则认证反向半径。进一步构建受控随机实验,其中动作在 $w_t$ 后选定,始终满足Blackwell的支撑半空间条件。此时财富为适应性零假设下的e-过程;子线性OCO后悔保证随机逼近性,而备择假设下持续均值分离导致财富以至少 $\delta^2/(4B^2)$ 的指数速率增长。确定性Blackwell博弈与被动检验分别为该协议的无噪声与单动作情形。有界两样本均值、核MMD及主动异质数据源均能实例化此还原。该连接在代数上精确、有限时间量化且实验可控时可操作。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Betting-based sequential tests and Blackwell approachability are linked by a rate-explicit reduction through support-function residuals. For a compact convex target $S$ and vector observations $r_t$, an OCO learner selects a predictable normal $w_t$ and produces $q_t=\langle w_t,r_t\rangle-h_S(w_t)$. We prove the exact pathwise identity $$ \dist(\bar r_T,S) =\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^Tq_t+\frac{\Reg_T}{T}. $$ When $|q_t|\leq B$, composing this identity with one-sided betting yields a finite-time transfer: if the OCO and log-wealth regrets are at most $a_T$ and $\ell_T$, respectively, then a target gap exceeding \[ \frac{a_T}{T} +2B\sqrt{\frac{\log(1/α)+\ell_T}{T}} \] forces rejection by time $T$, while non-rejection certifies the converse radius. We then formulate a controlled stochastic experiment in which an action selected after $w_t$ satisfies Blackwell's supporting-halfspace condition for every null mean payoff. The resulting wealth is an e-process under adaptive nulls; sublinear OCO regret gives stochastic approachability, whereas persistent mean separation under an alternative gives exponential wealth at rate at least $δ^2/(4B^2)$. Deterministic Blackwell games and passive tests are, respectively, the noise-free and singleton-action cases of this protocol. Bounded two-sample means, kernel MMD, and active heterogeneous data sources instantiate the reduction. The resulting connection is exact algebraically, quantitative at finite time, and operational when experiments are controlled.

在线学习统计检验下注策略凸几何

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