arXiv:2608.09683cs.LGphysics.ao-ph2026-08

用深度学习补全台风数据中缺失的最大风半径,提升灾害评估精度。

Deep Learning Imputation of Missing Radius of Maximum Winds (Rmax) Values in Tropical Cyclone Best-Track Data

  • 采用时序神经网络捕捉台风生命周期中的风半径变化规律。
  • 引入34节风圈半径后,所有模型性能显著提升,最高相关性达0.85。
  • 时序模型在样本少的情况下仍保持高稳定性,适合数据稀疏场景。

概率性沿海灾害评估需要准确的热带气旋(TC)参数,但最佳路径数据常缺失最大风半径(Rmax)这一关键变量。本研究评估了多种数据驱动方法用于Rmax插补,包括一维卷积神经网络(1DCNN)、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)及传统机器学习模型。通过合成RAFT和STORM数据集进行预训练,再用观测IBTrACS数据微调。引入34节风圈半径(R34)显著提升各类模型表现。时序模型在样本量仅为非时序模型十分之一的情况下,平均相关性更高,表明其更好保留了风暴间相对Rmax变化特征。当R34不可用时,时序信息优势更明显,可部分弥补风暴尺度特征缺失。迁移学习未带来性能提升,可能因合成数据集的Rmax分布范围和变异性低于IBTrACS。研究证明时序深度学习在重建不完整台风记录中的潜力,并强调物理信息输入、真实观测数据与分布一致性对灾害评估的重要性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Probabilistic coastal hazard assessments require accurate characterization of tropical cyclone (TC) parameters, yet datasets often contain missing records for the radius of maximum winds (Rmax), a key variable in Joint Probability Method analyses. This study evaluates data-driven approaches for Rmax imputation, including one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1DCNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and conventional machine learning models. We examine physics-informed input augmentation, temporal modeling, and transfer learning using synthetic RAFT and STORM datasets for pre-training and observational IBTrACS data for fine-tuning. Including the radius of 34-knot winds (R34) substantially improves performance across all model types. Temporal models achieve higher average correlations than non-temporal models despite using approximately an order of magnitude fewer samples, indicating better preservation of relative Rmax variability across storms. This advantage is more pronounced when R34 is unavailable, suggesting temporal information can partially compensate for missing storm-size predictors. Transfer learning does not improve performance, likely because synthetic datasets have lower and less variable Rmax distributions than IBTrACS. These findings demonstrate the potential of temporal deep learning for reconstructing incomplete TC records and highlight the importance of physics-informed inputs, observational data availability, and distributional consistency in coastal hazard assessment.

台风建模深度学习数据填补灾害评估

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