arXiv:2608.09768cs.LG2026-08

提出新方法约束模型高自信但错误的概率,提升深度学习可靠性。

ReliableNet: A Chance-Constrained Approach to Trustworthy Classification in Deep Learning

论文配图:ReliableNet: A Chance-Constrained Approach to Trustworthy Classification in Deep Learning
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过概率约束直接控制高自信错判的联合风险
  • 在6个数据集上均实现低于设定风险预算的可信度失败率
  • 适合对可靠性要求高的医疗、金融等安全敏感场景

一个既自信又错误的预测是可靠性失效的关键表现,因其可能绕过拒答和人工审查。经验风险最小化(ERM)仅控制平均损失,无法直接应对此类失效;校准、不确定性估计、共形风险控制及选择性预测等方法虽关注相关可靠性属性,但未在训练中约束联合失效事件。本文提出ReliableNet,将联合高自信-错误(JCW)概率控制在用户设定的风险预算α∈(0,1)以下。将其建模为机会约束下的ERM问题,并采用保守平滑内近似,其总体可行性可保证原始约束成立。在四个表格数据集与两个图像数据集上,ReliableNet是唯一在所有分布内数据集与种子下均满足JCW预算的方法,相较包括ERM、事后校准、共形风险控制与选择性预测在内的基线方法表现更优。在人群分布、模糊性、虚假相关、新类别及协变量偏移等挑战下,其实际JCW最低,同时保持高准确率、覆盖率、校准性和选择性预测性能。风险-覆盖率分析显示,多数数据集上其选择性排序优于基准方法。总体而言,ReliableNet提供了一种可信分类的原理性解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

A prediction that is both confident and wrong is a critical reliability failure because it can bypass abstention and human review precisely when the model is mistaken. Empirical risk minimization (ERM) controls average loss but not this failure directly, while calibration, uncertainty estimation, conformal risk control, and selective prediction methods target related reliability properties rather than bounding the joint failure event during training. We propose ReliableNet, which constrains the Joint Confident-Wrong (JCW) probability, the probability that a prediction is simultaneously confident and incorrect, below a user-specified risk budget $α\in(0,1)$. We formulate this as a chance-constrained ERM problem, use a conservative smooth inner approximation whose population feasibility implies the original JCW constraint. Across four tabular and two image datasets, ReliableNet is the only method certified within the JCW budget for every dataset and seed in distribution, when compared against baselines spanning ERM, post-hoc calibration, conformal risk control, and selective prediction. Under demographic, ambiguity, spurious-correlation, novel-class, and covariate shifts, it achieves the lowest empirical JCW among the compared methods while remaining very competitive in accuracy, coverage, calibration, and selective prediction. Risk-coverage results further indicate that ReliableNet achieves better selective ranking than the benchmark methods on most datasets. Overall, ReliableNet provides a principled approach to trustworthy classification.

可信分类机会约束可靠性评估

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