用语言模型直接生成金融数值,实现预测与投资决策一体化。
Financial Numerical Prediction and Allocation as Token Generation
- 让模型通过约束性词元生成直接输出金融预测和投资权重,无需专用头结构。
- 在2023–2025年五只ETF测试中,组合夏普比率从1.428提升至1.529(净收益1.394→1.494)。
- 适合关注模型端到端金融决策能力的研究者和量化从业者。
金融预测通常依赖于特定任务的回归、排序或策略头,将语言模型与最终评估的数值对象分离。本文探究因果语言模型是否可通过受控词元生成直接表示预测与决策。FinATOM构建了一个无头的统一接口,用于三步股票收益预测与动态五资产配置。预测模型自回归生成标准化收益词元,经序数与排序监督训练后,再通过单轮词元级策略阶段优化。配置模型生成归一化全多头权重;通过监督微调模仿因果均值-方差基准,结合DAPO增强的GRPO优化21天实际夏普比率,同时保持基准一致性。在2023–2025年五只ETF测试中,策略使综合粗夏普比率从1.428升至1.529,5基点交易成本下净夏普由1.394增至1.494。多模态输入配置在三个周期平均夏普达1.540,优势在2025年最明显。在FinTexTS数据集上,SFT与策略策略分别获得73.52%/2.68与73.72%/2.69累计收益/夏普。结果表明,语言模型直接生成金融数值具有可行性,并推动跨资产、场景与随机种子的广泛验证。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Financial prediction typically relies on task-specific regression, ranking, or policy heads, separating the language model from the numerical object ultimately evaluated. We investigate whether a causal language model can instead represent forecasts and decisions directly through constrained token generation. FinATOM introduces a unified, head-free interface for three-step stock-return forecasting and dynamic five-ETF allocation. The forecasting model autoregressively emits volatility-standardized return tokens and is trained with ordinal and ranking supervision followed by a one-epoch token-level policy stage. The allocation model generates normalized long-only weights; supervised fine-tuning imitates a causal mean--variance anchor, and DAPO-augmented GRPO optimizes realized 21-day Sharpe subject to anchor consistency. In 2023--2025 ETF tests, the allocation policy improves pooled gross Sharpe from 1.428 to 1.529 and net Sharpe under a 5-bp transaction-cost model from 1.394 to 1.494. The multimodal allocation input attains the highest three-period mean Sharpe of 1.540, with its clearest advantage in 2025. On FinTexTS, the SFT and policy strategies achieve 73.52\%/2.68 and 73.72\%/2.69 cumulative-return/Sharpe, respectively. These results support the feasibility of direct language-model token generation for financial numerical prediction and decision-making, while motivating broader tests across assets, regimes, and random seeds.
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