提出新指标区分足球控球是真创造空间还是无效传递。
Space-Creating versus Dead Possession: An Off-Ball Possession-Quality Index for Broadcast Football
- 用威胁值变化检测控球序列是否无实质推进
- 发现低威胁控球与得分和预期进球差显著负相关
- 结合视频定位分析，识别出74%的控球实际未创造空间
控球时间是足球中最常被引用却最易误导的数据：在己方半场60%的控球并不等于将对手压制。现有基于事件的控球价值框架（如预期威胁、VAEP）仅评估有球动作，忽略无球状态下的控球质量——持球是否创造了空间，还是只是无效循环？本文从两层解决此问题。第一层，构建事件级“废控”指数，基于预期威胁网格计算每段控球的峰值威胁增益，并在重建实时比分后，标记在平局或落后状态下威胁低的序列。在2026年世界杯103场比赛（206队次）中，该标志与积分呈负相关（r=-0.37），与预期进球差相关性更强（r=-0.51，部分受指数耦合影响）。即使固定球队进攻VAEP和场区倾斜度，该废控标志仍显著负向关联积分（p<0.0001，含比赛聚类），而VAEP不再显著——说明其提供了有球价值模型之外的新信息。第二层，对标记窗口通过广播视频投影到球场坐标，计算空间创造指数（SCI）：衡量控球过程中净控场面积变化，判断是否真实推进空间。在9场世界杯比赛中31个标记窗口（目的性抽样）中，74%为非空间创造型，19%为弱推进，6%为真正空间创造型但被事件标志误判为失败——包括一支控球率达73%却因点球结束的边路进攻（两个非创造窗口）。两层结构实现了‘空间创造但未转化’与‘纯消耗性控球’的分离，这是仅靠有球价值无法实现的区分。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Ball possession is the most-cited and most-misleading number in football: 60% recycled in one's own half is not 60% spent pinning the opponent back. Existing event-based possession-value frameworks (expected threat, VAEP, on-ball value) price on-ball actions but ignore the off-ball question a sterile possession poses: did holding the ball create space, or was the circulation dead? We answer this in two layers. First, an event-side junk-possession index prices each possession sequence by its peak threat gain under an expected-threat grid and -- after reconstructing the live scoreline to exclude lead-protecting circulation -- flags low-threat sequences in tied-or-losing states. On the 2026 FIFA World Cup (103 matches, 206 team-matches) the flag correlates negatively with points (r=-0.37) and xG difference (r=-0.51, partly index-coupled). It is not a repackaging of on-ball value: with team offensive VAEP and field tilt held fixed, the junk flag stays strongly negatively associated with points (p<0.0001, also match-clustered) while VAEP is not significant -- in this same-match (descriptive) regression it adds information beyond this on-ball action-value model. Second, for a flagged window we resolve whether it was spatially dead or space-creating by projecting broadcast video to pitch coordinates and measuring a Space-Creation Index (SCI): a net pitch-control change capturing whether the possession seized space or pushed the opponent's block back. Across 31 of 35 flagged windows from nine World Cup matches (a purposive sample), 74% are spatially non-space-creating, 19% weak progression, and 6% space-creating windows the event flag alone would score as failure -- including a side with 73% of the ball that exited on penalties (two non-creating windows). The two layers separate space-creating-but-unconverted from sterile possession, a distinction event-only on-ball value cannot make.
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