用大模型推理动态组合时间序列预测模型,让结果更准且可解释。
REATS: LLM Reasoning-based Ensemble Learning for Adaptive Time Series Forecasting

- 基于大模型思维链,融合文本模式与数值特征生成自适应权重
- 在8个基准上超越主流集成方法,误差降低约5%-12%
- 支持自然语言解释,适合需可解释性的工业预测场景
由于现实世界时间序列的多样性,单一模型无法在所有样本上持续领先。集成学习通过结合互补模型优势来应对这一挑战,但现有方法依赖固定规则或仅基于数值输入的黑箱模型,未能利用大模型(LLM)的推理能力实现可解释的加权决策。本文提出REATS,利用大模型推理作为智能集成路由,联合处理文本化的时序模式描述与数值特征,通过思维链推理生成可解释、样本自适应的集成权重。为实现高效的大模型集成,我们研究关键设计选择并提出:(i) 结构化输入管道,将原始时间序列转化为具有固定词元开销的混合文本-数值表示,支持基于规则的思维链构建且无需调用API,同时引入检索到的相似样本先验;(ii) 多行权重监督方案结合令牌高效的百分比表格式,降低数值复杂度并缓解大模型幻觉;(iii) 两阶段微调框架,结合SFT与GRPO,通过互惠奖励映射将连续无界均方误差差距转换为有界信号,并增强近最优解的敏感性,解决回归型GRPO中敏感性均匀和异常值主导优势压缩的问题。在八个基准上的实验表明,REATS在性能上优于竞争性集成基线,提供自然语言解释,并展现出强大的迁移学习能力和对未见候选模型的域外泛化能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Due to the diversity of real-world time series, no single forecasting model consistently dominates across all samples. Ensemble learning addresses this by combining complementary model strengths, yet existing methods rely on fixed rules or black-box models based solely on numerical inputs, failing to leverage LLM reasoning for interpretable weighting decisions. We propose REATS, which leverages LLM reasoning capabilities as an intelligent ensemble router that jointly processes textual temporal pattern descriptions and numerical features to produce interpretable, sample-adaptive ensemble weights through chain-of-thought reasoning. To enable effective LLM-based ensembling, we study its key design choices and propose: (i) a structured input pipeline that transforms raw time series into hybrid textual--numerical representations with fixed token cost, enabling rule-based chain-of-thought construction without API dependency, augmented with retrieved similar-sample priors; (ii) a diverse multi-row weight supervision scheme coupled with a token-efficient percentage-table format that reduces numerical complexity and mitigates LLM hallucinations; and (iii) a two-stage fine-tuning framework combining SFT with GRPO, where a reciprocal reward mapping transforms the continuous unbounded MSE gap into bounded signals with amplified near-oracle sensitivity, addressing the uniform sensitivity and outlier-dominated advantage compression inherent in naive reward designs for regression-based GRPO. Experiments on eight benchmarks demonstrate that REATS outperforms competitive ensemble baselines while providing natural language explanations and demonstrating strong transfer learning and out-of-domain generalization to unseen candidate models.
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