arXiv:2608.10553cs.LGcs.AI2026-08中稿 · the 35th ACM Inter…

用历史相似误差修正时间序列预测区间,提升准确性与稳定性。

Retrieval-Corrected Conformal Prediction for Time Series

论文配图:Retrieval-Corrected Conformal Prediction for Time Series
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过检索相似历史误差提供局部证据
  • 在检索基础上用标量校正确保覆盖率达到目标
  • 适用于需要精准不确定性量化的时间序列场景

共形预测(CP)为固定预测器提供无分布假设的预测区间,但其标准校准过程在时间序列数据上效率较低,因预测误差具有时序依赖性且随时间和运行条件变化。现有方法通过近期、加权或局部残差改进局部校准,但局部校准仍可能间接,因广泛残差加权或额外适配过程会稀释当前预测最相关的证据。本文提出检索-校正共形预测(RCCP),一种增强检索的时间序列预测区间校准方法。RCCP构建不对称区间,基于检索的一侧残差,并用标量共形校正归一化检索误差。检索提供局部残差证据,共形校正决定最终覆盖尺度。我们给出了基于归一化检索误差分布稳定性的覆盖率缺口边界。在标准基准和多种主干预测器上,RCCP在所有设置中均达到目标覆盖率,且取得最低的Winkler得分,严重误判更少。RCCP还具备低校准与推理开销,表明检索-校正校准是时间序列不确定性量化的一种高效可扩展方法。代码见:https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals. Yet local calibration can remain indirect, since broad residual weighting or additional adaptation procedures may dilute the evidence most relevant to the current prediction. This motivates a simple retrieval and correction strategy that selects similar past residuals as local evidence and then corrects the coverage error left by retrieval. In this paper, we propose Retrieval--Corrected Conformal Prediction (RCCP), a retrieval-augmented calibration method for time series prediction intervals. RCCP builds an asymmetric interval from retrieved one-sided residuals and calibrates its normalized retrieval error with a scalar conformal correction. Thus, retrieval provides local residual evidence, while conformal correction determines the final scale needed for coverage. We provide a coverage-gap bound based on the stability of the normalized retrieval error distribution. Across standard benchmarks and backbone forecasters, RCCP attains the target coverage in every setting and achieves the lowest Winkler scores, with fewer severe misses. RCCP also achieves low calibration and inference overhead, showing that retrieval-corrected calibration is an effective and scalable approach to uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp.

时间序列不确定性量化共形预测检索增强

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