arXiv:2608.10738cs.LGcs.NA2026-08

用两种新策略让神经微分方程长期预测更准,误差不爆炸增长。

Long-Time Trajectory Approximation via SA-NODEs: Model Predictive and Floquet Strategies

  • 分段重置状态:模型预测后根据观测值重置,避免误差累积
  • 长期误差线性增长,而非双指数恶化,适合长时间序列建模
  • 适用于周期系统或需实时反馈的场景,理论可证且实验验证

我们研究通过半自主神经微分方程(SA-NODEs)在长时域上近似动力系统。对于在整个时域上训练的单一网络,误差界随时域长度呈双指数恶化。为此,我们提出两种避免此瓶颈的训练策略,均基于状态重置。模型预测策略自适应划分时域,每窗口从观测数据重启:当每个窗口训练达到预设容差时,复合模型在全时间均匀满足该容差,参数预算与时域长度线性相关,适用于具有有界、一致正则可达管的系统。弗洛凯策略针对具稳定极限环的自治目标,部署时不依赖数据:学习到的返回映射的认证收缩将误差控制在周期数的线性增长内。对周期性架构,标量证书失效;我们证明了基于训练模型测量的全局轨道保证,并揭示了一个障碍:对精确周期的场,小单周期误差与收缩的闪烁映射不能同时成立。四个基准上的数值实验验证了预测的误差规律,并测量了每项保证的假设。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We study the approximation of dynamical systems by semi-autonomous neural ordinary differential equations (SA-NODEs) over long time horizons. For a single network trained on the whole horizon, the available error bound deteriorates double exponentially in the horizon length. We develop two training strategies that avoid this barrier, each built on a reset of the state. The model predictive strategy partitions the horizon adaptively and restarts every window from observed data: when training meets a prescribed tolerance on every window, the composite model meets it uniformly in time, with a parameter budget linear in the horizon for targets with a bounded, uniformly regular reachable tube. The Floquet strategy addresses autonomous targets with a stable limit cycle and uses no data at deployment: a certified contraction of the learned return map confines the error to linear growth in the number of elapsed periods. For the time-periodic architecture we deploy, the scalar certificate degenerates; we prove instead a uniform-in-time orbital guarantee whose hypotheses are measured on the trained model, and an obstruction showing that, for an exactly periodic learned field, small one-period error and a contracting stroboscopic map cannot hold at once. Numerical experiments on four benchmarks confirm the predicted error laws and measure the hypotheses of every guarantee.

神经ODE长期预测误差控制动态系统

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