arXiv:2608.10885cs.CV2026-08

用语言描述+可信度校准,让大模型先筛肺结节良恶性,不确定的再交专业模型处理。

ConfTriage: A Calibration-Aware LLM Triage Framework for Pulmonary Nodule Malignancy with Selective Specialist Deferral

论文配图:ConfTriage: A Calibration-Aware LLM Triage Framework for Pulmonary Nodule Malignancy with Selective Specialist Deferral
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用自然语言描述作为输入,通过置信度校准实现安全分诊。
  • 76.5%病例仅靠大模型即可判断,准确率F1达88.22%,AUC为0.92。
  • 适合医疗AI系统中通用大模型与专业模型协同部署场景。

肺结节恶性程度预测通常依赖需大量标注数据的任务特定深度学习模型。本文探究仅基于标准结节特征的自然语言描述,能否由通用大语言模型(LLM)充当经过校准的分诊层。提出ConfTriage框架,包含三大支柱:以语言为模态、校准为安全机制、低置信度案例交由专用深度学习模型处理。证明两项理论保证:有限样本下联合误差上界提供阈值级操作证书;过失风险受LLM概率校准误差(L1范数)控制。在LIDC-IDRI数据集上对五种前沿LLM进行七路输入消融实验显示,自然语言描述主导诊断信号,而低层图像统计基本无诊断价值。ConfTriage达到F1分数88.22%、AUC 0.92,76.5%病例仅通过零样本大模型推理解决,其余交由专家模型处理。结果表明,结构化放射学描述可蕴含临床有效信息,并可通过校准后的大模型实现选择性转诊。该框架为通用大模型与专用模型在医疗决策支持系统中的结合提供了实用路径。代码已公开于https://github.com/rabiul-ai/ConfTriage。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Pulmonary nodule malignancy prediction typically depends on image-trained specialist deep learning (DL) models that require substantial annotated imaging data and task-specific training. We investigate whether a generalist large language model (LLM), reading only a faithful natural-language rendering of standard nodule attributes, can serve as a calibrated triage layer. We propose ConfTriage, a confidence-calibrated method built on three pillars: language as the modality, calibration as the safety mechanism, and a selective specialist DL backstop for low-confidence cases. We prove two guarantees: a finite-sample combined-error bound yielding an explicit per-threshold operational certificate, and an oracle inequality showing that excess risk over the Bayes-optimal deferral classifier is controlled by the L1 calibration error of the LLM probability. A controlled seven-way input ablation across five frontier LLMs on LIDC-IDRI shows that natural-language descriptions dominate the diagnostic signal, while low-level image statistics are essentially diagnostically vacuous. ConfTriage achieved an F1 score of 88.22% and an AUC of 0.92, resolving 76.5% of cases using zero-shot LLM inference alone and referring only uncertain cases to the specialist DL backstop. These results demonstrate that clinically meaningful diagnostic information can be captured through structured radiological descriptions and leveraged by calibrated LLMs for selective referral. The framework suggests a practical pathway for combining generalist LLM prediction with specialist AI models in medical decision-support systems. Source code is publicly available at https://github.com/rabiul-ai/ConfTriage.

大模型医疗肺结节分诊系统置信度校准

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