arXiv:2608.11154cs.LG2026-08中稿 · presentation at th…

提出新方法评估供应链干预措施,区分修复效果与实际价值提升。

DACRI: Decision-Aware Causal Intervention Ranking for Critical Supply Chains

  • 用因果推理构建可控基准,精准衡量干预策略的净收益。
  • 在芯片和关键材料领域,自适应排序模型提升33%-75%恢复价值。
  • 复杂模型并非总优,简单缓冲策略在数字基建中更稳定可靠。

检测或归因供应链中断不同于选择能最大化可恢复净价值的干预措施。我们提出了CriticalSCM-Bench v1,一个具有因果真值的受控合成基准,包含事实与反事实推演以及明确的净价值目标。相较于全信息静态基准,LambdaMART在半导体和关键材料原型中使中位数标准化净价值提升5.7%–16.2%,在统计上显著;但在数字基础设施领域表现不佳。该领域中,基于领域知识的恒定缓冲策略仍更优,表明更高模型复杂性并非普遍适用。在部分观测与延迟设置下,LambdaMART仍保留全夹持条件下33%–75%的价值。压力测试显示,干预保真度、时机、成本及未见中断会影响策略排序。关键材料在分布外情形下的表现最弱。此外,对540次生成结果的保守解释研究,在确定性验证与模板回退后,成功保持了所有固定干预决策的一致性,尽管具体表述仍不稳定。在此受控环境下,研究识别出自适应排序有价值的情境,也指明结构化简化策略更优的情形。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Detecting or attributing a supply-chain disruption is not the same as selecting the intervention that maximizes recoverable net value. We present CriticalSCM-Bench v1, a controlled synthetic benchmark with causal ground truth, paired factual/counterfactual rollouts, and an explicit net-value objective. Relative to a full-information train-selected static benchmark, LambdaMART improves median normalized net value by 5.7--16.2\%, with paired statistical support on the semiconductor and critical-material archetypes but not on digital infrastructure. On digital infrastructure, a domain-informed constant-buffer policy remains stronger, showing that greater model complexity is not uniformly justified. Across partial and delayed settings, LambdaMART retains 33--75\% of full-clamp value. Stress tests further show that intervention fidelity, timing, cost, and held-out disruptions can alter policy ordering. Critical materials show the weakest out-of-distribution retention. Separately, a guarded explanation study over 540 generations preserves every fixed intervention decision after deterministic validation and template fallback, although exact wording remains unstable. Within this controlled setting, the results identify regimes in which adaptive ranking adds value and those in which simpler structural policies remain preferable.

供应链因果推理干预评估优化

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