arXiv:2608.11254cs.LGphysics.ao-ph2026-08

用生成模型+任务感知隐空间耦合,提升光伏短期预测精度与突发变化捕捉能力。

FarSky: Task-Aware Latent-Space Coupling for Generative Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting

论文配图:FarSky: Task-Aware Latent-Space Coupling for Generative Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过多任务自编码器学习图像重建与辐照度估计的共享隐表示
  • 在隐空间生成未来状态,实现概率化预测,最大提升11个百分点的预报技能
  • 特别擅长识别突变事件,F1值超60%,适合电网调度等高要求场景

准确的太阳辐照度预测对光伏电力并入现代电网至关重要。全天空成像仪(ASI)提供高分辨率云图,适用于小时内的预测。近年来深度学习方法显著提升了预测精度,但常受限于确定性输出和对突变事件的预判能力不足。本文提出FarSky,一种生成式预测框架,利用隐空间耦合学习天空图像的任务感知表征。多任务自编码器首先学习图像重建与辐照度估计的共享隐表示;随后,隐扩散模型基于近期观测生成未来隐状态,并直接解码得到辐照度预测。通过随机采样自然获得概率预测。该框架基于西班牙阿尔梅里亚太阳能平台多年期ASI数据集构建,并在两个独立测试集上对比了持久性模型、先进端到端及生成式方法。FarSky在整体确定性与概率预测性能上表现最佳,预报技能最高提升11个百分点。同时,在突变事件检测上显著优于现有方法,F1得分超过60%。结果表明,生成模型结合任务感知隐空间耦合在太阳能预测中具有巨大潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate solar irradiance forecasting is essential for the reliable integration of photovoltaic power into modern electricity grids. All-sky imagers (ASI) provide high-resolution observations of clouds, making them well suited for intra-hour forecasting. Recent deep learning approaches have substantially improved forecast accuracy but are often limited by deterministic predictions and a reduced capability to anticipate ramp events. This work proposes FarSky, a generative forecasting framework that leverages latent-space coupling to learn task-aware representations of sky images. A multi-task autoencoder first learns a shared latent representation for image reconstruction and irradiance estimation. A latent diffusion model then generates future latent states conditioned on recent observations, from which irradiance forecasts are directly decoded. Probabilistic forecasts are inherently obtained through stochastic sampling. The framework is developed using a multi-year ASI dataset acquired at the Plataforma Solar de Almería, Spain, and evaluated on two independent test datasets against persistence, state-of-the-art end-to-end, and generative forecasting approaches. FarSky achieves the best overall deterministic and probabilistic forecasting performance, improving forecast skill by up to 11 percentage points. Furthermore, it substantially improves ramp event detection over existing methods, achieving F1-scores above 60%. These results demonstrate the potential of combining generative models with task-aware latent-space coupling for solar forecasting.

太阳能预测生成模型隐空间耦合突变检测

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