arXiv:2608.11359cs.LG2026-08

用市场信息引导的低秩适配器,让大模型跨市场预测电价。

Market-Information-Aware Gated-LoRA of Foundation Models for Transferable Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting

  • 构建多源市场信息接口,融合供需、备用等7项关键变量。
  • 仅更新1%参数,跨市场测试中误差降低6.24%~7.99%。
  • 适合数据少的新电力市场,无需目标市场标签即可迁移。

电力价格预测对市场参与者至关重要,但价格波动大、市场特性强且与系统预期状态紧密相关。现有监督方法严重依赖特定市场的历史数据,难以应用于新成立或数据稀缺的市场。本文提出一种市场信息感知的适配框架,将Chronos-2时间序列基础模型迁移至日前电价预测。首先构建多源市场信息(MSMI)接口,对齐7天价格上下文与预清结算阶段的供需、备用、检修、机组容量及跨区互联变量;随后训练一个源域门控低秩适配器(LoRA),仅更新约1%模型参数,无需目标市场标签。门控机制根据备用紧张度和运行状态信号动态缩放冻结的源适配器。采用留一市场外评估协议验证跨市场可迁移性。在四个中国省级日前现货市场实验显示,该框架相较市场信息感知的零样本Chronos-2,平均MAE/RMSE分别降低6.24%/7.99%;相较普通源域LoRA,降低3.05%/3.52%。实验表明,增益无法由全局标量或随机门初始化复现,而相较于源域LoRA的提升有限。结果表明,结构化市场输入与状态依赖门控LoRA可为数据稀缺电力市场提供实用的迁移路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Electricity price forecasting is crucial for market participants but remains difficult because prices are volatile, market-specific, and closely tied to anticipated system conditions. Existing supervised methods depend largely on market-specific historical data, limiting their use in newly established or data-scarce markets. This paper proposes a market-information-aware adaptation framework that transfers the Chronos-2 time-series foundation model to day-ahead electricity price forecasting. It first constructs a multi-source market information (MSMI) interface aligning 7-day price context with pre-clearing supply--demand, reserve, maintenance, generator-capacity, and intertie variables, and then trains a source-domain gated low-rank adapter (LoRA), updating about $1\%$ of model parameters without target-market labels. The gate scales the frozen source adapter according to reserve-tightness and operating-state signals. A leave-one-market-out protocol is adopted for evaluating cross-market transferability. Experiments on four Chinese provincial day-ahead spot markets show that the proposed framework reduces the average MAE/RMSE by $6.24\%/7.99\%$ relative to market-information-aware zero-shot Chronos-2 and by $3.05\%/3.52\%$ relative to vanilla Source-LoRA. Experiments show that the gain is not reproduced by a learned global scalar or by random gate initialization, while the additional improvement over Source-LoRA is limited. These results suggest that market-structured inputs and state-dependent gated LoRA can provide a practical transfer path for data-scarce electricity markets.

电价预测迁移学习时间序列电力市场

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