提出新方法检测模型预测中的模糊性,提升高风险场景的可靠性。
Robust Ambiguity Detection (RAD) From Model- and Feature-Space Consistency

- 通过模型空间与特征空间一致性构建双重检测指标
- 在真实数据集上验证可识别不可见的预测模糊性
- 适合用于医疗、金融等需可信决策的高风险领域
机器学习模型应具备鲁棒性,即在允许的扰动下保持预测一致。当模型被功能等价的替代或输入经历微小合理变化时,若预测显著改变,则该预测属于“模糊”范畴。模型应避免此类预测或标记给人工审查,尤其在高风险决策中。然而部署后模糊性难以识别。本文提出鲁棒模糊性检测(RAD)框架,利用两个互补指标——模型空间一致性和特征空间一致性,量化预测模糊性。这两项得分构成RAD评分对,通过RAD图可视化,揭示模糊来源并指导应对策略。RAD在具有系统控制重叠的合成数据集及多个真实数据集上进行评估,其中模糊程度无法直接观察。最后展示了下游应用:根据RAD帕累托排序对样本排序,拒绝最模糊样本,性能媲美现有基于拒绝的方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Machine learning models should be robust, in the sense of remaining predictively consistent under permissible variations. A model's predictions should ideally remain unchanged when it is replaced by a functionally equivalent one, or when its inputs are subject to minor, admissible perturbations. If such changes alter a prediction significantly, then the prediction is "ambiguous" with respect to the model. Models should abstain from making such ambiguous predictions and/or should flag them for human inspection, especially in high-stakes decision-making scenarios. However, in practice, such ambiguity is not easy to identify once a model is deployed. Here, the Robust Ambiguity Detection (RAD) framework is advanced for quantifying predictive ambiguity using two complementary metrics: Model-Space Consistency and Feature-Space Consistency. These two scores, the RAD Score-Pair, visualised through the RAD Plot, provide an interpretable characterisation of the sources of ambiguity and the actions a user may consider in response. RAD is evaluated on synthetic datasets with systematically controlled overlap, as well as several real-world datasets where the level of ambiguity cannot be directly inspected. Finally, we demonstrate a downstream application of RAD where samples are ranked by their RAD Pareto-Rank and the most ambiguous are abstained from prediction, achieving performance comparable to existing rejection-based approaches.
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