arXiv:2608.11623cs.LGcs.AI2026-08被引 1

让大模型直接学时间序列的频率特征,无需文本提示就能精准预测。

FM-LLM: A frequency-enhanced mixture-of-experts framework for adapting LLMs to time series forecasting

论文配图:FM-LLM: A frequency-enhanced mixture-of-experts framework for adapting LLMs to time series forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用频域分析网络将周期性特征注入冻结的大模型,实现无提示适配。
  • 在11个基准上59项指标领先,长时预测误差降低最多达8.4%。
  • 适合需要高精度时间序列预测的场景,尤其擅长少样本学习。

大型语言模型(LLM)的进展推动了跨模态的时间序列预测方法。然而,现有方法严重依赖文本提示进行模态对齐,带来显著计算开销,且未能利用时间序列固有的丰富频域动态特性。为实现无需提示、具备频率感知能力的冻结LLM适配,我们提出FM-LLM(用于时间序列预测的频率增强型专家混合框架),一种基于受限非对称耦合的自回归框架。基于傅里叶分析网络(FAN)的频谱标记对齐器,以数值兼容方式将结构化谐波表示直接注入冻结的LLM。非对称专家混合(MoE)解码器强制角色分离:共享专家搭配轻量FAN层重建全局周期主干,路由专家(仅限标准前馈网络)专注于建模非周期残差动态。时间-频率混合损失函数联合优化时间精度与频谱一致性,缓解长时自回归滚动中的误差累积。在11个公开基准上评估,FM-LLM在78项评估指标中有59项达到最优性能。相比最强的自回归LLM基线,其均方误差(MSE)平均提升5.3%,平均绝对误差(MAE)提升5.6%,最大提升分别达8.0%和8.4%。FM-LLM还展现出优异的可迁移性,在10%少样本及零样本预测场景中保持领先表现。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have spurred cross-modal solutions for time-series forecasting. However, existing methods rely heavily on textual prompts for modality alignment-introducing nontrivial computational overhead and failing to leverage the rich spectral dynamics inherent in time-series data. To enable prompt-free, frequency-aware adaptation of frozen LLMs, we propose FM-LLM (Frequency-Enhanced Mixture-of-Experts for adapting LLMs to Time Series Forecasting), an autoregressive framework grounded in constrained asymmetric coupling. A Fourier Analysis Network (FAN)-based spectral token aligner injects structured harmonic representations directly into the frozen LLM with numerical compatibility. An asymmetric Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) decoder enforces role separation: shared experts with lightweight FAN layers reconstruct the global periodic backbone, while routed experts-restricted to standard FFNs-specialize in modeling non-periodic residual dynamics. A time-frequency hybrid loss function jointly optimizes temporal accuracy and spectral consistency, mitigating error accumulation during long-horizon autoregressive rollouts. Evaluated across eleven public benchmarks, FM-LLM achieves state-of-the-art performance on 59 out of 78 evaluation metrics. Compared to the strongest autoregressive LLM-based baseline, it delivers average improvements of 5.3% in MSE and 5.6% in MAE, with maximum gains reaching 8.0% for MSE and 8.4% for MAE. FM-LLM also demonstrates robust transferability, maintaining superior performance in 10% few-shot and zero-shot forecasting scenarios.

时间序列大模型频率分析专家混合

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