让AI专家随市场变化自动切换,提升交易收益30%以上
TradingMoE: Routing the Right Experts in Evolving Markets

- 用低维查询匹配专家,动态选择最适合当前市场的模型组件
- 在股票和加密货币上比最强基线高出30.89%和30.7%的累计回报
- 适合关注动态决策与稀疏计算的量化交易研究者
大型语言模型在金融分析中潜力巨大,但直接用于交易仍具挑战,因预测需求随资产、领域和市场状况而异。现有基于LLM的交易系统要么依赖人工定义的外部专家,要么采用不评估专家实际贡献的传统内部专家混合(MoE)路由机制,且无法获取专家在状态变化时是否更适用的直接信号。我们发现原生路由评分不能准确反映专家对交易决策的提升效果,常遗漏更优选择。进一步发现,每个标记的专家有效性具有紧凑的低维结构。基于此,我们提出TradingMoE,一种面向交易的稀疏MoE架构,在冻结的密集LLM基础上引入轻量级残差专家。我们设计了查询-键路由机制,将当前市场环境下每个标记所需的专业知识表示为低维查询,并与可学习的专家键匹配。同时提出稀疏专家选择更新机制,在训练中采样少数未激活专家,评估其是否应取代当前Top-k路由中最弱的专家。该机制使路由能随市场变化更新专家选择,同时保持稀疏计算。在股票和加密货币市场对22个基线的实验表明,TradingMoE分别实现30.89%和30.7%的累计收益提升。滚动纸交易实验也证明其优势在前向部署中依然持续。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong potential for financial analysis and trading, but direct trading remains challenging because the predictive capabilities required can vary across assets, decision fields, and market conditions. Existing LLM-based trading systems either coordinate human-defined external experts or adopt conventional internal Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) routers that do not directly evaluate how individual experts contribute to trading decisions. Moreover, these routers receive no direct signal indicating when an inactive expert has become more suitable as market conditions change. We find that native router scores poorly reflect how much individual experts improve trading decisions, frequently leaving better alternatives unselected. We further reveal that token-specific expert usefulness exhibits a compact low-dimensional structure. Based on these findings, we propose TradingMoE, a trading-oriented sparse MoE that augments a frozen dense LLM with lightweight residual experts. We introduce a Query-Key router that represents the expertise required by each token under the current market context as a low-dimensional query and matches it with learnable expert keys. We further propose a sparse expert selection update mechanism that samples a few inactive experts during training and estimates whether they should replace the weakest expert in the current Top-k route. This mechanism enables the router to update expert selection as market conditions change while preserving sparse computation. Experiments against 22 baselines on stock and cryptocurrency markets show that TradingMoE improves cumulative return over the best-performing baselines by 30.89% and 30.7%, respectively. Rolling paper-trading experiments further demonstrate that its advantage persists under forward-only deployment.
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