arXiv:2608.11917cs.LG2026-08

用因子图方法实现可扩展的多输出高斯过程回归,支持缺失数据且计算高效。

A Factor Graph Approach to Scalable Multi-Output Gaussian Process Regression

  • 将多输出高斯过程建模为一维链上的因子图,通过近邻链结构组织输入点
  • 后验推断复杂度为O(C(DL² + L³)),在低维输入下逼近精确解,支持缺失观测
  • 适合处理大规模、含缺失值的低维多输出时间序列,如电力负荷预测

多输出高斯过程回归在样本数乘以输出数上呈立方级增长,且当不同输出在不同输入处观测时,传统密集核矩阵方法需特殊处理。本文提出一种福尼风格因子图方法,将固定候选集中的C个输入按最近邻链顺序排列成一维序列。沿该链,潜在马特恩过程通过线性高斯转移因子演化;线性核心化模型将L个潜在过程通过确定性混合因子和每输出标量观测因子组合为D个输出。后验计算转化为链上精确高斯消息传递,链构建后复杂度为O(C(DL² + L³)),缺失观测仅移除局部因子,无需重新构造协方差矩阵。因此方法在数据量和缺失率上均具有可扩展性,最适合低维输入场景。在合成数据维度扫描与电力时间序列预测任务中,因子图方法在低维输入下紧密跟踪精确核矩阵后验,随输入维度上升差距渐增但仍优于两种近似基线。在电力数据上,其预测精度与三种基线相当,且随数据点数线性扩展,而精确核矩阵方法不可行,诱导点基线仍显著更慢。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multi-output Gaussian process regression scales cubically in the number of observations times outputs, and dense kernel-matrix methods need bespoke handling whenever different outputs are observed at different inputs. We express multi-output Gaussian process regression as a Forney-style factor graph in which a nearest-neighbor chain orders a fixed candidate set of $C$ inputs into a one-dimensional sequence. Along this chain, latent Matérn processes evolve through linear-Gaussian transition factors, while the linear model of coregionalization mixes $L$ latent processes into $D$ outputs through a deterministic mixing factor and per-output scalar observation factors. Posterior computation reduces to exact Gaussian message passing on the chain at cost $\mathcal{O}(C(DL^2 + L^3))$ after chain construction, and missing observations omit their local factor without any covariance-matrix restructuring. The formulation therefore scales in the number of data samples and in the rate of missing observations, while remaining best suited to candidate sets in low input dimension. We compare the factor-graph formulation against an exact kernel-matrix baseline, a sparse-variational inducing-point baseline, and a nearest-neighbor baseline on a synthetic input-dimension sweep and on electricity time series forecasting. At low input dimension the factor-graph posterior tracks the exact kernel-matrix posterior closely, and the gap grows gradually as input dimension increases while staying competitive with both approximate baselines. On the electricity time series our factor-graph formulation matches all three baselines in forecast accuracy while scaling linearly in the number of data points, where the exact kernel-matrix method becomes infeasible and the inducing-point baseline remains substantially slower.

高斯过程多输出因子图可扩展

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。