针对航空极端事件数据稀缺,提出双层生成框架增强稀有样本并保证操作可行性。
TailBooster: A Dual-Layer Generative Framework for Extreme Value Augmentation with Operational Validity Enforcement
- 双层生成:统计层捕获尾部极端值,深度层过滤不合理的合成记录。
- 合成数据使极端事件预测误差降低29%-57%,且操作合规性显著提升。
- 适用于缺乏领域规则的极端事件预测场景,可推广至其他高风险领域。
航空运输中的极端事件(如严重延误、异常飞行时长)引发连锁网络中断,带来巨大运营、经济与安全成本。这些事件在历史数据中罕见,导致机器学习模型训练信号不足。合成数据增强提供合理解决方案,但传统生成模型难以有效捕捉分布尾部,且无法避免操作上不可行的实例(如短飞行时长搭配长航程)。现有方法未同时解决混合类型表格数据的这两个问题。本文提出TailBooster,一种结合生成建模与双重异常检测的双层框架。统计层通过四分位距提取极端值,为专用生成模型(如表格式变分自编码器)提供集中于尾部的训练信号;深度学习层则基于自编码器进行数据清洗,剔除违反历史数据所学操作边界(operational envelope)的合成记录。在美国内部航班数据上,从多样性、统计相似性、保真度、操作有效性及实用性五个维度评估,结果表明数据驱动清洗显著提升操作有效性,针对性增强提升了极端事件预测的实用性。在六种回归算法上,使用该框架生成的数据使极端飞行时长预测的平均绝对误差降低47%-49%,极端到达延误预测降低29%-57%;当真实数据与合成极端样本融合后也取得类似增益。框架完全数据驱动且模型无关,可扩展至极端事件预测至关重要的其他领域,尤其适用于缺乏领域特定规则的场景。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Extreme events in air transport, such as severe arrival delays and abnormal air times, cause cascading network disruptions with substantial operational, economic, and safety costs. Such events are rare in historical records, leaving insufficient training signal for machine learning models. Synthetic data augmentation offers a principled solution, but conventional generative models under-represent distributional tails and give no guarantee against operationally infeasible instances, such as a short air time paired with a long flight distance. No existing approach addresses both limitations for mixed-type tabular records. We propose TailBooster, a dual-layer generative framework combining generative modelling with two anomaly detection layers. A statistical layer extracts extremes via the interquartile range, supplying tail-concentrated training signal to dedicated generative models, here a Tabular Variational Autoencoder. A deep learning layer then applies autoencoder-based cleaning, discarding synthetic records that violate the operational envelope learned from historical data. The framework was evaluated on US flight records across five dimensions: diversity, statistical similarity, fidelity, operational validity, and utility, the latter two being the primary improvement targets. Data-driven cleaning markedly improved operational validity, while targeted augmentation enhanced utility for extreme-event prediction. Across six regression algorithms, training on the framework's records reduced Mean Absolute Error by 47-49% on extreme air time and 29-57% on extreme arrival delay prediction relative to conventional synthetic data, with comparable gains when real records were enriched with synthetic extremes. Being fully data-driven and model-agnostic, TailBooster extends to domains where extreme-event prediction is critical and domain-specific rules are unavailable.
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