arXiv:2608.12037cs.LGcs.SY2026-08

解决随机预测模型的鲁棒性问题,防止多模态输出被平均化。

Clustered Randomized Smoothing for Stochastic Prediction Functions

论文配图:Clustered Randomized Smoothing for Stochastic Prediction Functions
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 先聚类再局部平滑,保留多模态分布特征。
  • 轨迹预测误差降低27%,无人机碰撞率减少81%。
  • 适合需要高可靠性的自动驾驶、机器人控制场景。

现代随机预测器能够建模丰富且多模态的结果分布。然而,这种表达能力带来了确保预测鲁棒性的挑战——这在安全关键领域至关重要。随机平滑是提升鲁棒性的主流技术,尤其针对对抗扰动。但在随机多模态回归场景中,传统随机平滑常因模式坍缩而失效,导致预测结果为平均值,无法反映真实分布。为此,我们提出聚类α平滑(clustered α-smoothing)框架:(1) 使用任意聚类算法对噪声样本进行划分;(2) 在每个簇内局部应用α平滑;(3) 将各簇结果组合成混合分布。通过将平滑分布解释为多个α平滑器的混合,我们推导出平滑预测落在对应不同模式的紧凑区域并集中的概率下界。我们在两个基准上进行了实证评估,结果显著优于现有方法。在驾驶模拟器数据集上的随机轨迹预测中,我们的方法平均使与真实分布的Wasserstein距离降低27%;在四旋翼飞行器控制任务中,当模式对应于到达目标的不同可行路径时,相比最先进方法,碰撞率降低了81%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modern stochastic predictors can model rich, multi-modal outcome distributions. However, this expressive power comes with challenges in ensuring robust predictions $-$ a critical requirement in safety-critical domains. Randomized smoothing is a leading technique for improving robustness, particularly against adversarial perturbations. Yet, in stochastic multi-modal regression settings, randomized smoothing often fails due to mode collapse, yielding averaged predictions that do not reflect the underlying distribution. To address this limitation, we propose clustered $α$-smoothing, a framework that (1) partitions noisy samples using an arbitrary clustering algorithm, (2) applies $α$-smoothing locally within each cluster, and (3) combines the resulting predictions into a mixture distribution. By interpreting the smoothing distribution as a mixture of $α$-smoothers, we derive a lower bound on the probability that the smoothed prediction lies within a union of compact regions corresponding to distinct modes. We empirically evaluate our framework on two benchmarks, demonstrating substantial improvements over state-of-the-art methods. In stochastic trajectory prediction on a driving simulator dataset, our approach achieves, on average, a $27\%$ lower Wasserstein distance to the ground-truth distribution compared to $α$-smoothing. In quadrotor control, where modes correspond to distinct feasible paths to a target, our method reduces the collision rate by $81\%$ relative to the state-of-the-art randomized smoothing.

随机预测多模态鲁棒性控制

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