arXiv:2608.12100cs.LGcs.AI2026-08

让深度模型在噪声数据和隐私约束下仍能给出可靠置信度。

Confidence Calibration of Deep Learning Systems

论文配图:Confidence Calibration of Deep Learning Systems
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于噪声模型重建无噪置信度,提升标签不可靠时的校准性。
  • 无需目标域标签,通过源域性能与域差异估算准确率实现校准。
  • 结合差分隐私与分布外检测,兼顾隐私保护与预测可靠性。

在高风险应用中,可靠的置信度估计与预测同样重要。校准确保预测概率真实反映正确性,对深度学习模型的安全部署至关重要。然而现有方法通常假设验证数据干净,这在标签噪声和领域偏移普遍存在时难以满足。本文提出在上述条件下的校准改进方法:首先针对标签噪声问题,构建基于噪声模型的框架,通过建模噪声标签与清洁标签分布间关系,重构无噪置信度;进一步扩展至符合性预测(Conformal Prediction, CP),提出噪声感知的CP方法,即使在标签噪声下仍可估计清洁的符合性分数,实现可靠不确定性量化。其次,在无监督领域自适应场景中,因目标域无标签数据,通过源域性能与域差异估计目标域准确率,实现无需标签的校准。最后,在隐私保护设置下,设计局部差分隐私的符合性预测框架,保障用户标签与模型输出隐私的同时,维持校准有效性与计算可行性。结果表明,该系列方法弥合了校准理论与实际部署之间的差距,推动安全、隐私保护、抗噪声的神经网络预测发展。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In high-stakes applications, reliable confidence estimates are as important as the predictions themselves. Confidence calibration ensures that predicted probabilities reflect the likelihood of correctness, making it essential for safe deployment of deep learning models. However, existing methods typically assume access to clean validation data, which is often unrealistic due to label noise and domain shifts. This thesis develops methods for improving calibration under these conditions. First, we address calibration under label noise. Standard methods can produce misleading confidence estimates when labels are unreliable. We propose a framework that uses an estimated noise model to reconstruct noise-free confidence estimates by modeling the relationship between noisy and clean label distributions. We extend this approach to Conformal Prediction (CP), which provides set-valued predictions with guaranteed coverage. Our noise-aware CP method estimates clean conformity scores despite label noise, enabling reliable uncertainty quantification. Next, we study calibration in unsupervised domain adaptation, where a model trained on a labeled source domain is adapted to an unlabeled target domain. Since labeled target data are unavailable, we estimate target-domain accuracy from source performance and domain discrepancies, enabling calibration without target labels. We also consider privacy-preserving settings in which user labels and model outputs must remain protected. We propose a locally differentially private conformal prediction framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification while maintaining privacy guarantees and balancing privacy, computational feasibility, and prediction reliability. Our results bridge calibration theory and practical deployment in safety-critical applications, contributing to reliable, privacy-preserving, and noise-resilient neural network predictions.

模型校准标签噪声隐私保护分布外检测

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