arXiv:2608.12283q-fin.PMcs.CL2026-08

用大模型分析财经新闻,分离公司特有与宏观风险,提升小盘股交易收益。

Large Language Model-Driven Small-Capitalization Trading: Integrating Financial News Sentiment, Macroeconomic Indicators, and Technical Signals

论文配图:Large Language Model-Driven Small-Capitalization Trading: Integrating Financial News Sentiment, Macroeconomic Indicators, and Technical Signals
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将大模型预测的风险拆分为两类,直接融入投资组合协方差矩阵。
  • 40天持有期下纯宏观信号策略在100bps交易成本内仍达夏普2.33。
  • 分离宏观与个股信号比要求两者同时触发更有效,适合量化交易研究者。

大语言模型可从财经新闻中提取比固定情感词典更丰富的信号,近期研究已探索将其用于投资组合构建。本文提出一种不确定性感知的构建方法,将模型预测的风险(分解为随机性与认知性两部分)直接输入投资组合协方差矩阵,而非将风险视为固定或仅调整预期收益。我们在罗素2000指数成分股上评估了三种选股策略:纯阿尔法(捕捉宏观未解释的异常波动)、纯贝塔(提前捕捉宏观指标对股票的领先影响)、以及贝塔交汇(两者同时触发)。在全持有周期内,纯阿尔法与纯贝塔通常优于贝塔交汇策略,尤其在1天和40天周期表现突出。1天周期下,低至中等交易成本时,纯贝塔可利用宏观与板块指标对小盘股的即时领先溢出效应获利,但当交易成本达100 bps时,换手率与微结构噪声使其优势消失;40天周期下,纯贝塔因宏观重估速度慢于个股反应而有效。最优保守配置为:GPT-4o mini情绪模型、学生分布目标、40天持有期、风险平价分配,夏普比达2.33(100 bps交易成本)。结果表明,选股策略与分配器选择的重要性至少与情绪模型相当,且分离宏观与公司特有信号比强制两者一致更优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large language models can extract richer signals from financial news than fixed sentiment lexicons, and recent work has explored feeding such signals into portfolio construction. We study an uncertainty-aware construction that feeds model-predicted risk -- decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic components -- directly into the covariance matrix of portfolio allocators, rather than treating portfolio risk as fixed or adjusting only expected returns. We evaluate the pipeline on Russell 2000 equities under three stock-selection regimes: a pure-alpha trigger that isolates abnormal stock moves not explained by macro indicators, a pure-beta trigger that captures macro-indicator moves before the stock itself fires, and a beta trigger in which both channels agree. Across the full holding-period grid, the separated pure-alpha and pure-beta legs usually dominate the beta intersection on Sharpe and return. Two horizons are especially informative. At one day, pure beta can work under low and moderate transaction costs because it captures immediate lead-lag spillovers from liquid macro and sector indicators into exposed small-cap stocks, but this advantage disappears at 100 bps when turnover and microstructure noise dominate. At 40 days, pure beta works for a different reason: slower macro repricing overtakes the firm-specific pure-alpha channel. The strongest conservative row is pure beta with GPT-4o mini sentiment, a Student-t target, a 40-day holding period, and risk parity allocation, reaching Sharpe 2.33 at 100 bps. The results suggest that stock-selection regime and allocator choice matter at least as much as the sentiment model, and that separating firm-specific and macro-exposure triggers is more informative than requiring both to fire simultaneously.

量化交易大模型应用小盘股风险建模

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