arXiv:2608.12363econ.GNcs.AI2026-08

抑制碳价虽能短期降电费,却拖累绿电投资,长期推高碳排放。

EU-ETS under attack? The impact of carbon price suppression on the decarbonization of the power sector

论文配图:EU-ETS under attack? The impact of carbon price suppression on the decarbonization of the power sector
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用多智能体强化学习模拟意大利电力系统,测试碳价抑制政策影响。
  • 碳价抑制使碳排放普遍上升,仅最激进的绿电支持可避免此结果。
  • 适合关注能源政策与碳市场关系的决策者和研究者参考。

欧洲国家正就缓解地缘政治紧张导致的能源成本上升展开政策讨论,同时推进脱碳与电气化。以意大利2026年《电费法案》为例,该方案拟在批发电力市场中取消部分燃气电厂投标的碳价等效成分。本文以此为案例,评估电力市场中碳价信号被抑制对投资、排放及消费者成本的长期影响。采用基于MARLEY的简约意大利电力系统模型,该模型为专注于长期电力市场评估的多智能体强化学习框架。在不同绿电投资支持、资源充足性及灵活性配置下测试该政策。结果显示,部分碳价信号抑制虽带来短期成本下降,但对总系统成本影响甚微,因延迟的排放最终由消费者承担。多数配置下碳排放上升,因碳价信号削弱抑制了可再生能源与储能投资。仅最激进的绿电支持配置可避免此结果,但其通过弱化现货价格信号实现,要求采用与原政策逻辑相悖的混合市场模式。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

European countries are debating policies to mitigate the increased energy costs caused by renewed geopolitical tensions, while pursuing decarbonization and electrification. A notable example is Italy's 2026 Decreto Bollette package, which proposes to remove the carbon price equivalent from the bids of certain gas-driven power plants to wholesale electricity markets, among other provisions. We use this as a case study to assess the long-term implications of suppressing the carbon price signal in the electricity market for investment, emissions, and consumer costs. We employ a stylized Italian power system using MARLEY, a multi-agent reinforcement learning framework focused on long-term electricity market assessments. In this framework, we test this policy across configurations with varying levels of support for green investment, resource adequacy, and flexibility. Results show that partial suppression of the carbon price signal yields short-term cost reductions but only a minor long-term effect on total system costs, as the deferred emissions are ultimately repaid by consumers. CO$_2$ emissions rise across most configurations since suppressing the price signal erodes incentives for renewable and storage investment. Only the most ambitious configurations for supporting green investment avoid this outcome, but they do so by marginalizing the wholesale price signal itself, thereby requiring a commitment to a hybrid market paradigm that is in contradiction with the rationale of the proposed price intervention.

碳定价电力系统政策评估

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。