arXiv:2608.12424q-fin.CPcs.LG2026-08

AI融合多源数据,提升银行利率预测精度与决策透明度。

AI-Driven Multiscenario Interest Rate Forecasting: A Proof of Concept for Banking Asset Management

论文配图:AI-Driven Multiscenario Interest Rate Forecasting: A Proof of Concept for Banking Asset Management
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 结合贝叶斯向量自回归与文本分析,实现多视角利率预测。
  • 在欧洲某大行测试中显著提升预测灵活性与战略决策支持能力。
  • 适合金融分析师与风控人员,助力主动管理利率风险。

本研究开发了一种基于人工智能的多维度利率预测原型系统,融合经典计量经济学模型与现代AI技术。在一家主要欧洲银行的测试中,该系统通过整合主题建模、情感分析、计量经济预测与市场分析,在交互式平台上实现了对利率走势的更精准、灵活预测,有效支持资产负债管理(ALM)中的战略决策。系统利用AI分析大量金融文档与市场数据,提前识别货币政策趋势与情绪信号。核心模型为贝叶斯向量自回归(BVAR),支持基于模拟的多情景分析,从多个视角评估经济演变。其创新在于整合了此前分散的信息源,实现透明可解释的统一呈现。金融分析师与风险管理人员因此获得更可靠的决策依据,能更准确评估利率风险并主动应对市场波动。尽管原型仍需优化实时数据接入与合规性,但已证明多视角AI驱动预测可显著提升银行透明度、强化基于证据的决策,并改善风险管理效能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study focuses on developing an AI-supported prototype for multiperspective interest rate forecasting that combines classical econometric models with modern artificial intel-ligence methods. Tested in a major European bank, the system enables more precise and flexible prediction of interest rate developments, supporting strategic decision-making in Asset-Liability Management (ALM). It integrates topic modeling, sentiment analysis, econometric forecasting, and market-based analyses within an interactive platform. Leveraging AI to analyze large volumes of financial documents and market data enables the identification of monetary policy trends and sentiment signals at an early stage. The core econometric model is a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) that enables simulation-based scenario analyses to evaluate economic developments from multiple perspectives. The system's innovation lies in its integration of several forecasting approaches that consolidate previously separate information sources and present them transparently and interpretably. Financial analysts and risk managers thus gain a better basis for making decisions, allowing them to assess interest rate risks more accurately and manage market movements more proactively. While the prototype demonstrates how AI can transform interest rate management in banking, further development is required to optimize real-time data integration and regulatory compliance. Even at this stage, the study shows that multi-perspective, AI-driven forecasting provides substantial added value for banks by increasing transparency, strengthening evidence-based decision-making, and improving risk management.

利率预测AI应用风险管理银行科技

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