arXiv:2608.12663stat.APcs.LG2026-08

用AI生成的地理嵌入数据,高效预测野火易发区

Evaluating AlphaEarth Foundations Embeddings for Wildfire Susceptibility Mapping

论文配图:Evaluating AlphaEarth Foundations Embeddings for Wildfire Susceptibility Mapping
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用AlphaEarth嵌入数据替代传统物理变量,减少特征工程
  • 模型在维多利亚州野火预测中AUC超0.92,精准识别高风险区
  • 跨区域迁移能力强,适合政府与保险机构快速部署

野火易发性制图通常依赖多个遥感、气候和地理空间产品中的物理变量。AlphaEarth Foundations(AEF)提供可直接分析的地理嵌入数据,有望降低对复杂数据融合和任务特异性特征工程的依赖,但其在野火易发性制图中的价值尚未系统评估。以澳大利亚维多利亚州(2017–2025年)为案例,我们发现AEF嵌入能高精度重建野火分析中常用变量。基于卫星火灾发生数据训练的下游易发性模型中,基于嵌入的模型在维多利亚州取得超过0.92的ROC-AUC,稳定识别出东部地区(特别是吉普斯兰和东北高地)的高风险区,并在中部和西北部出现局部热点。AEF嵌入的一大优势是其在气候相似区域内的强邻近迁移能力:当在维多利亚州训练的模型应用于堪培拉和西悉尼-蓝山地区时,堪培拉的ROC-AUC提升约4%,而西悉尼-蓝山地区仅下降约2%;相比之下,传统物理变量模型平均下降约25%。这些结果为AEF嵌入的实际应用提供了指导,也为政府机构与(再)保险公司等下游用户构建可扩展的野火易发性制图工作流奠定了基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Wildfire susceptibility mapping typically relies on physical variables assembled from multiple remote-sensing, climate, and geospatial products. AlphaEarth Foundations (AEF) provides analysis-ready geospatial embeddings that may reduce this dependence on heavy harmonisation and task-specific feature engineering, but their value for wildfire susceptibility mapping has not been systematically evaluated. Using Victoria, Australia (2017-2025), as a case study, we show that AEF embeddings can reconstruct commonly used variables in wildfire susceptibility analysis with high accuracy. In downstream susceptibility models trained on satellite-derived fire occurrence data, embedding-based susceptibility models achieve ROC-AUC values above 0.92 and consistently identify high wildfire susceptibility across eastern Victoria, particularly Gippsland and the north-eastern uplands, with additional localized hotspots in central and northwestern Victoria. A key feature of AEF embeddings is their strong near-region transferability within climatically similar regions. When embedding-based models trained in Victoria are applied to Canberra and Western Sydney-Blue Mountains, ROC-AUC improves by around 4% at Canberra and declines by around 2% at Western Sydney-Blue Mountains, compared with a mean decrease of approximately 25% for physical-variable models. These findings provide practical guidance for using AEF embeddings and lay a foundation for scalable wildfire susceptibility mapping workflows for downstream users such as government agencies and (re)insurers.

野火预测地理嵌入遥感机器学习

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