让网球视频理解从看动作到懂战术，证据链精准定位关键击球

Sports-video understanding is moving beyond event recognition toward explaining how actions collectively shape match progression, however, existing tennis-video methods either perceive individual strokes without modeling their tactical dependencies or generate high-level analyses without grounding them in the underlying events. To bridge this perception-to-understanding gap, we formulate stroke-evidence-grounded tactical reasoning, a new rally-level task that requires models to jointly predict an open-ended answer, a hierarchical tactic label, an ordered sequence of supporting strokes, and decisive key actions, with each evidence stroke anchored to its racket-ball contact frame. We further introduce TRACE (Tactical Reasoning with Action-Chain Evidence in Tennis), a large-scale expert-annotated benchmark containing 11,189 rally videos, 41,485 stroke events, 25,429 tactical units, and 11,189 question-answer pairs, which unifies fine-grained stroke attributes, cross-stroke tactical relations, hierarchical tactic annotations, and evidence-grounded questions across factual perception, tactical understanding, and decision reasoning. Building on TRACE, we propose TennisVAR (Tennis Video Action-chain Reasoner), an evidence-grounded multimodal large language model that follows an "event-relation-evidence-tactic" reasoning paradigm, where an Event Parsing Module converts continuous rallies into explicit stroke-event sequences while a Tactical Graph-Guided Temporal Reasoner jointly models rally progression and same-player decision dependencies to identify question-relevant evidence and decisive actions.