arXiv:2608.13518cs.LGcs.CV2026-08

建模术后不规则恢复轨迹,提升心律失常消融后复发预测精度

Intervention-Aware Clinical World Model for Post-Op Outcome Forecasting in Cardiology

论文配图:Intervention-Aware Clinical World Model for Post-Op Outcome Forecasting in Cardiology
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用结构化隐状态追踪患者术后变化,融合事件、时间与生理数据动态更新
  • 在DECAAF-II数据上复发预测AUROC达0.756,疤痕范围预测误差仅2.971个百分点
  • 可支持不同时间点风险查询和缺失记录回溯,适合临床决策辅助场景

现有临床预测模型将术后结局视为从基线测量到终点的单步映射。然而,术后恢复常呈不规则轨迹:临床观察、用药调整、重复干预及生理指标异步记录,会随时间改变风险评估。我们提出一种干预感知的临床世界模型,通过时序事件动态演化患者的结构化隐状态。模型先将基线影像编码为3D空间隐状态,再结合手术上下文、静态协变量、时间间隔及围事件生理嵌入进行更新。随访影像提供训练阶段的隐状态预测监督。该框架应用于心房颤动消融术。在90天恢复期内,非规则术后记录提供了长期复发风险的临床意义证据。在DECAAF-II数据的多次内部交叉验证中,模型复发预测的AUROC为0.756,AUPRC为0.777;疤痕范围预测的平均绝对误差(MAE)为2.971个百分点,且推理时无需随访MRI强度值。学习到的隐状态支持不同时间点的风险查询及空白期记录的回溯编辑。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Many clinical prediction models treat post-intervention outcomes as a one-step mapping from baseline measurements to a future endpoint. However, recovery after a procedure often unfolds as an irregular trajectory: clinical observations, medication changes, repeat interventions, and physiological measurements are recorded asynchronously and can change risk assessment over time. We propose an intervention-aware clinical world model that represents each patient with a structured latent state and evolves it through time-ordered post-intervention events. The model first encodes baseline imaging into a 3D spatial latent state. It then updates this state using procedural context, static covariates, elapsed time, and peri-event physiological embeddings. Follow-up imaging provides training-only supervision through a latent forecasting objective. We apply the framework to atrial fibrillation ablation. During the 90-day recovery window, irregular post-procedure records provide clinically meaningful evidence for long-term recurrence risk. In repeated internal cross-validation on DECAAF-II, our model achieves AUROC 0.756 and AUPRC 0.777 for recurrence prediction. It also achieves a scar-extent MAE of 2.971 percentage points without requiring follow-up MRI intensities at inference. The learned state supports recurrence-risk queries at different horizons and retrospective input editing of blanking-period records.

术后预测临床世界模型心律失常隐状态建模

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