2022年后保守派言论趋于同质,而进步派未变,可能与AI影响有关。
Asymmetric Discourse Homogenization and Shared Language Technology: Evidence from Reddit
- 用600万条Reddit评论分析政治话语分化趋势的不对称变化
- 保守派在2022年后出现言论同质化,进步派无明显变化
- 机制更可能是社区层面话语趋同,而非个体使用AI所致
本文基于2019至2025年来自两个跨党派论坛的600万条Reddit评论,发现政治话语分化趋势在2022年底出现意识形态不对称断裂:保守派用户此前的多样化趋势被中断,而进步派用户未见类似变化。该不对称性在多种估计方法(ITS、DiD、RDiT、倾向得分匹配)和时间聚合下均成立。对2377个候选截断日期进行日频置换检验显示,ChatGPT发布阈值仅位于第49.8百分位,表明该转变是渐进而非突变。追踪七次大模型发布的连续累积LLM指数,在二次趋势设定下仍显著,排除了二元阈值解释。留驻者分析进一步表明,当样本仅限于全程活跃作者时,同质化效应消失,且留驻者置信区间排除了小于全样本估计十分之一的作者内效应。机制最可能是生态型(社区层面话语趋同),而非个体级AI使用,尽管无法完全排除同期普遍趋势的影响。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
I document an ideologically asymmetric break in the pre-existing diversification trend of political discourse, emerging around late 2022, using 6 million Reddit comments from two cross-partisan forums, 2019-2025. Conservative users experienced an interruption of their prior diversification trajectory; progressive users showed no comparable change. The asymmetry is consistent across estimation strategies (ITS, DiD, RDiT, propensity-score matching) and temporal aggregations. A daily-frequency permutation test over 2,377 candidate cutoff dates shows the ChatGPT threshold produces an unremarkable estimate (49.8th percentile): the shift builds gradually instead of breaking at a single date. A continuous cumulative LLM index, tracking AI exposure across seven model releases, remains significant under a quadratic trend specification that eliminates the binary estimate. A stayer analysis narrows the mechanism: the homogenization effect disappears when the sample is restricted to authors active throughout the study period, and the stayer confidence interval excludes within-author effects even a tenth the size of the full-sample estimate. The mechanism is most parsimoniously ecological (community-level discursive convergence) rather than individual-level AI adoption, though the data cannot cleanly separate this account from concurrent secular change.
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