用机器学习填补土工数据缺失,提升抗剪强度预测精度与可靠性。
Probabilistic indirect models for undrained shear strength: addressing significant data missing and variability with advanced imputation and machine learning techniques
- 结合多头注意力机制的神经网络,从有限数据中提取关键信息。
- 多变量正态插补法在模型上表现最优,误差降低23%以上。
- 适合处理数据缺失严重、样本稀少的地质工程场景。
准确预测不排水抗剪强度(su)对岩土工程设计至关重要,但传统经验方法常受较大不确定性影响。本研究基于全球性的CLAY/10/7490数据库,利用液限、塑限及静力触探(CPTU)数据构建概率间接模型。数据存在高缺失率与显著变异性,比较了多元正态(MN)、链式多重插补(MICE)和缺损森林(MF)三种插补方法,通过概率极端梯度提升(PXGB)模型验证其有效性。进一步将多头注意力(MHA)嵌入人工神经网络,构建了基于MHA的概率神经网络(MHA-PNN)。采用均方根误差(RMSE)、决定系数(R²)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)、条件区间宽度(wCI)和覆盖率(CR)评估模型性能。结果表明,经MN增强的MHA-PNN模型在预测精度与不确定性量化方面均显著优于其他模型,展现出在稀疏、不完整数据下的强大建模潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate prediction of undrained shear strength (su) is crucial for geotechnical design, but is often hampered by substantial uncertainty in traditional empirical methods. This study uses the CLAY/10/7490 global database to develop probabilistic indirect models to predict su based on Atterberg limits and piezocone cone penetration (CPTU) measurements. Firstly, the dataset has a high missing data rate and variability. We test three imputation methods - multivariate normal (MN), multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE), and miss forest (MF) - to fill the missing values. To validate their effectiveness, a Probabilistic Extreme Gradient Boosting (PXGB) model is developed, and the imputation methods are evaluated by comparing the PXGB's performance when trained on the imputed datasets against that on the original incomplete data. Secondly, the indirect model is built by integrating a multi-head attention (MHA) mechanism into an artificial neural network (ANN) to enhance information extraction from limited data, which leads to the MHA-based probabilistic neural networks (MHA-PNN) model. The models' performance, alongside a conventional MN-based prediction model, was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), conditional interval width (wCI), and coverage rate (CR). Results demonstrate that the proposed MN-enhanced MHA-PNN model substantially outperforms other models in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification. These findings highlight the potential of this integrated strategy for building robust probabilistic indirect models in geotechnical applications, particularly when confronted with sparse and incomplete datasets.
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