arXiv:2608.14054cs.LG2026-08

用检索增强提升短时序预测,不微调也能高效准确

Model-agnostic Retrieval-Augmented Extended Forecasting for time series

  • 直接在输入空间检索,减少计算开销
  • 拼接方式聚合历史数据,保留时间结构
  • 无需微调,适配领域短时序场景

基于预训练基础模型的时间序列预测展现出强大的零样本能力。然而,在特定领域中,当历史数据较短或可忽略时,通常需要通过微调或检索增强生成(RAG)进行适应。尽管微调效果良好,但成本高昂。本文探索了单变量时间序列中的RAG方法,提出一种无模型依赖的检索增强扩展预测(RAEF),在原有RAF基础上改进:(1) 在输入空间而非嵌入空间直接检索,降低推理开销;(2) 采用拼接式聚合策略,保持时间结构而非平均处理。在多个基准数据集上的实证评估表明,RAEF在准确性和推理效率上均优于RAF。与零样本及微调的基础模型对比显示,RAEF达到甚至超越微调性能,同时避免其计算负担,成为时间序列预测领域适应任务中实用且可扩展的方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting with pretrained foundation models has demonstrated strong zero-shot capabilities. However, achieving optimal performance on time series with short or negligible historical data in domain-specific applications typically requires adaptation via either fine-tuning or RAG. While fine-tuning is effective, it incurs substantial computational costs. This work explores RAG within univariate time series (Retrieval Augmented Generation) as a more efficient alternative, in particular RAF (Retrieval Augmented Forecasting), and introduces RAEF (Retrieval-Augmented Extended Forecasting), a model-agnostic method built upon RAF. RAEF incorporates key refinements to the retrieval and aggregation mechanisms: (1) direct retrieval in input-space rather than embedding-space, reducing inference overhead, and (2) concatenation-based aggregation that preserves temporal structure instead of averaging. Empirical evaluation across multiple benchmark datasets demonstrates that RAEF outperforms RAF in both accuracy and inference overhead. Furthermore, comprehensive comparisons with zero-shot and fine-tuned foundation models show that RAEF achieves competitive or superior performance to fine-tuning while avoiding its computational burden, establishing it as a practical and scalable approach for domain adaptation in time series forecasting.

时间序列检索增强零样本

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。