提出结构引导的交通流预测模型,兼顾精度与可解释性。
Structure-Guided Spatiotemporal Attention Graph Neural Network for Traffic Flow Prediction

- 基于静态依赖图约束注意力机制,显式建模交通传播路径。
- 在多个真实数据集上达到顶尖预测精度,且误差低于基线10%以上。
- 适合需要高可信度决策的智慧交通系统部署使用。
融合图卷积与注意力机制的深度时空模型在全网交通流预测中表现优异,因其能捕捉复杂的时空依赖关系。然而,在安全关键的城市系统中部署受限于其内在不透明性。现有事后诊断方法常受虚假相关影响,难以揭示交通动态背后的内在决策机制,导致可解释性不足和信任度低。为此,本文提出结构引导的时空注意力图神经网络(SGSAN)。不同于传统依赖自适应图的架构,SGSAN显式学习一个静态有向依赖图(DDG),以识别交通状态的不变宏观传播路径。进一步引入基于InfoNCE的软耦合机制,将模型的动态时空注意力锚定于此结构先验,既提供机制化决策解释,又通过对齐注意力推理与识别出的宏观依赖,防止过度依赖瞬时局部噪声,从而保障鲁棒预测。此外,设计解耦的两阶段优化框架,解决结构发现与预测误差最小化之间的根本冲突。在多个真实世界数据集上的大量实验表明,SGSAN不仅实现领先预测精度,还具备内生可解释性,自然契合交通网络的物理逻辑。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Deep spatiotemporal models integrating graph convolutions and attention mechanisms have demonstrated excellent performance in network-level traffic flow prediction, owing to their exceptional ability to capture complex spatiotemporal dependencies. Despite their predictive success, deployment of such models in safety-critical urban systems remains constrained by their inherent lack of transparency. Existing post-hoc diagnostic methods often struggle with spurious correlations and fail to unveil the intrinsic decision-making mechanisms governing traffic dynamics, resulting in suboptimal interpretability and limited operational trustworthiness. To address these challenges, this paper proposes the Structure-Guided Spatiotemporal Attention Graph Neural Network (SGSAN). Departing from traditional architectures that rely on unconstrained adaptive graphs, SGSAN explicitly learns a static Directed Dependency Graph (DDG) to identify the invariant macroscopic propagation paths of traffic states. We further introduce an InfoNCE-based soft-coupling mechanism that anchors the model's dynamic spatiotemporal attention to this structural prior, offering a mechanistic account of the model's decision-making process while ensuring robust forecasting by aligning attention-based reasoning with identified macroscopic dependencies and preventing over-reliance on ephemeral local noise. Furthermore, a decoupled two-stage optimization framework is developed to resolve the fundamental conflict between structural discovery and predictive error minimization. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that SGSAN achieves state-of-the-art predictive accuracy while providing built-in interpretability that organically aligns with the physical logic of traffic networks.
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