arXiv:2608.14407cs.AI2026-08

AI科学家正从实验自动化迈向全流程科研自主,有望重塑科学发现方式。

The Past and Future of AI Scientists

  • 构建集成知识、实验与推理的智能科研代理
  • 已有系统实现诺贝尔级发现目标,2050年前有望达成
  • 适合关注未来科研范式变革的研究者

本文综述了人工智能科学家(AI Scientists)的过去与未来:能够自动化科学探索的机器。这些系统可提出假设、推导结论、设计并执行实验、解析结果并更新认知。它们是连接文献、形式知识、数学模型、仿真、数据分析系统及物理实验室的集成科学代理。Adam是首个通过假设生成与物理实验循环实现原创科学发现的机器;Eve确立了现代自驱动实验室的架构。如今,基础模型、自主代理与实验室机器人使系统远超以往的通用性。核心挑战已非单个环节能否自动化——它们早已可行——而是如何整合神经学习、逻辑、概率、数学、因果推理、模拟、实验设计、机器人技术与正式科学记录。AI科学家有望使科学更快速、更廉价、更系统且更可复现,能探索人类难以应对的复杂系统,并让数千名AI科学家协同攻关单一问题。诺贝尔图灵挑战设定目标:到2050年开发出能自动化诺贝尔级发现的AI系统。进展已超预期,成功将催生新型科学形态,深刻改变世界。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We present a survey of the past and future of AI Scientists: machines capable of automating science. AI Scientists can originate hypotheses, deduce their consequences, design and execute experiments, interpret their results, and revise their beliefs. Such systems are integrated scientific agents, connected to the literature, formal knowledge, mathematical models, simulations, data-analysis systems and physical laboratories. Adam was the first machine to make novel scientific discoveries through cycles of hypothesis formation and physical experimentation. Eve established the architecture of the modern self-driving laboratory. Foundation models, autonomous agents and laboratory robotics now make it possible to build systems far more general than either Adam or Eve. The central problem is no longer whether individual components of science can be automated. They can. The problem is integration. AI Scientists must combine neural learning with logic, probability, mathematics, causal reasoning, simulation, experimental design, robotics and formal scientific records. AI Scientists have the potential to transform science: to make science faster, cheaper, more systematic and more reproducible. AI Scientists could investigate systems too complicated for unaided human science, and enable thousands of AI scientists to work together on single problems. The Nobel Turing Challenge sets the goal of developing by 2050 AI systems capable of automating Nobel-quality discoveries. Progress is ahead of schedule. When we succeed it will create a new form of science and transform the world.

AI科学家自动化科研未来科学自主代理

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