用超分辨率生成高分辨率气象数据,突破模型训练的数据瓶颈。
Pushing the Limits of High-Resolution Weather Forecasting through Data Scaling

- 通过变量级超分辨率合成0.1°气象数据,替代传统模型迁移。
- 合成数据使72小时预报误差降低4.6%,120小时降低4.9%。
- 适合需要高分辨率气象预测的研究者和实际应用系统。
基于机器学习的0.1°全球气象预报模型受限于高分辨率数据稀缺,现有再分析数据仅提供0.25°分辨率。传统方法在有限0.1°样本上微调0.25°模型,但受粗分辨率预报固有的信息损失阻碍。本文提出BaguanHR框架,将重点从模型迁移转向数据迁移。研究表明,超分辨率(SR)相比预报具有更低条件熵和更小输入放大,是更稳健的分辨率转移方式。通过变量级超分辨率,从ERA5数据中合成大量0.1°数据。使用合成+真实数据训练的模型在72小时内超过85%预报时长表现优于现有机器学习方法和IFS-HRES。进一步发现存在幂律缩放效应:数据量翻倍可使72小时预报RMSE下降4.6%,120小时下降4.9%。结果表明,高分辨率机器学习气象预报的核心瓶颈在于数据,而变量级超分辨率提供了一种简单且通用的解决方案,可激活长期粗分辨率再分析数据用于高分辨率训练。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The development of 0.1$^{\circ}$ global weather forecasting models based on machine learning (ML) is constrained by the limited availability of high-resolution data, as decades of reanalysis are only available at 0.25$^{\circ}$ resolution. While existing approaches fine-tune 0.25$^{\circ}$ forecast models on limited 0.1$^{\circ}$ samples, we show that this transfer is hindered by the irreversible information loss inherent in coarse-resolution forecasting. Therefore, we propose BaguanHR, a framework that shifts the focus from transferring models to transferring data. We first show that super-resolution (SR) has lower conditional entropy and input amplification than forecasting, making it a more robust vehicle for resolution transfer. By leveraging this advantage through variable-wise SR, we synthesize extensive 0.1$^{\circ}$ data from ERA5. BaguanHR's performance on the synthetic-plus-real dataset exceeds both ML-based methods and IFS-HRES, achieving superior performance across over 85% of the lead times within 72 hours. Furthermore, our findings highlight a power-law scaling effect, as a twofold increase in data reduces RMSE by 4.6% for 72-hour forecasting and 4.9% for 120-hour forecasting. Our results demonstrate that scaling high resolution ML-based forecasting is primarily a data bottleneck, and that variable-wise super-resolution provides a simple yet general solution to unlock long coarse-resolution reanalyses for high-resolution training.
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