用小数据训练模型,分析老年人对社区步行体验的感知。
In-Context Learning to Assess Built Environment Impacts on Perceived Neighborhood Walkability Among Mobility-impaired Older Adults

- 用TabPFN模型基于上下文学习,从少量数据中识别影响步行感受的关键环境特征。
- 在257人的小样本上达到54.89%的宏观F1分数,优于传统模型。
- 发现道路弯曲度与可行车道比例的交互作用是主要判断依据。
随着全球人口老龄化,通过包容性城市设计提升社区步行性,有助于缓解老年人因建成环境障碍而减少体力活动与社会参与的问题。本研究探讨基于Transformer的通用模型TabPFN在上下文学习(ICL)框架下,评估建成环境(BE)特征对老年人感知步行性的影响,使用包含257名患有膝骨关节炎或跌倒史的老年人的小样本数据集,以邻里环境步行性量表(NEWS-A)为测量工具。结果表明,该模型在等宽分箱的低、中、高三类步行性感知分类任务中取得54.89%的宏平均F1分数,优于经过网格搜索优化的随机森林(45.85%)和XGBoost(50.56%)。通过SHAP交互量化(SHAP-IQ)分析,发现模型预测逻辑主要依赖于高阶特征交互。例如,街道平均弯曲度与可行车道比例的交互作用成为感知步行性的核心判别因子;绿化程度的预测重要性仅在与个体跌倒恐惧或适老感知结合时显现。研究表明,基于ICL的TabPFN在小样本场景下表现更优,且其解释性分析揭示了高阶交互机制对决策的关键作用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
As global populations age, enhancing neighborhood walkability through inclusive urban design is important for mitigating built environment (BE) barriers that discourage physical activity and social participation among older adults. This study investigates the utility of in-context learning (ICL), using the transformer-based foundation model TabPFN, to determine how BE features influence perceived walkability, as measured by the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale (NEWS-A) survey. Using a small-scale dataset (N = 257) comprising a unique demographic of older adults with knee osteoarthritis or a history of falls, TabPFN achieved a macro F1 score of 54.89% for walkability perceptions categorized as Low, Neutral, and High using equal-width binning. This result outperformed optimized, grid-searched baseline models, including Random Forest (45.85%) and XGBoost (50.56%). To interpret these results, we employed Shapley Interaction Quantification (SHAP-IQ) to identify the hierarchical importance of feature interactions. Preliminary results revealed that the model's predictive logic was primarily driven by higher-order interactions. For example, the interaction between average street circuity and the ratio of drivable roads emerged as the primary discriminator of perceived walkability. Neighborhood greenery was found to have substantial predictive importance only when combined with an individual's fear of falling or perception of age-friendliness. Overall, ICL using TabPFN demonstrates superior performance on small-scale datasets, enhancing the fidelity of the resulting interpretive insights. Furthermore, SHAP-IQ provides a synergistic perspective on how higher-order feature interactions drive the model's predictions.
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